Daily News | UBS Will Support Compliant Crypto ETFs; BTC Trading Fees Skyrocketed by Nearly 1000%; CME Becomes the Largest Exchange for BTC Futures Open Interest

Crypto Daily Digest: UBS will support compliant crypto ETFs; Bitcoin trading fees skyrocketed by nearly 1000%

According to Bloomberg, in the process of promoting the construction of a digital asset center in Hong Kong, UBS Group, along with competitors such as HSBC Holdings, has allowed Hong Kong clients to trade some exchange traded funds pegged with cryptocurrencies.

According to insiders, starting from Friday, wealthy customers will be able to purchase three crypto ETFs authorized by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission on the UBS Hong Kong platform, including Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active, CSOP Bitcoin Futures, and CSOP Ether Futures ETFs. Customers can also access educational materials to understand risks.

When CSOP Bitcoin Futures and CSOP Ether Futures were launched in December last year, they were hailed as the first Bitcoin and Ethereum futures ETFs listed in Asia. The total assets of these two funds and Samsung’s investment vehicles are relatively small, approximately $70 million.

Since August, the transaction fees for Bitcoin have increased by nearly 1000%.

Data shows that the average transaction fee for Bitcoin blockchain has reached $6.84, an increase of approximately 970% from the low point of $0.64 hit in August. Digital asset management company 21Shares pointed out in a report on Wednesday that this surge was driven by an increase in the casting volume of Ordinals, with nearly 1.9 million inions uploaded to blockchain in the past two weeks.

In addition, according to CryptoSlam data, in the past 24 hours, after excluding clean transactions, Bitcoin has surpassed Ethereum and become the blockchain with the highest NFT sales.

In response, analysts at 21Shares pointed out that although Ordinals are currently only used for some Meme coins, they do serve as a proxy for the increasing demand for Bitcoin blockspace, which is particularly important for miners. The resurgence of Ordinals has also contributed to the profitability of Bitcoin miners, with blockchain transaction costs currently accounting for approximately 8.5% of their revenue.

According to Deribit data, BTC option contracts with a nominal value exceeding $1.179 billion and ETH option contracts with a nominal value exceeding $400 million will expire for delivery on Friday (November 10th). The maximum pain point price for BTC is $34,000; The maximum pain point price for ETH is $1,700.

Greeks.live stated that this week, major cryptocurrencies hit new highs, with BTC rising to $37,000, driving a significant increase in the full term IV. Presently, BTC Dvol is as high as 65%, and ETH Dvol is also as high as 60%, both creating short-term new highs. Market sentiment is high, and the bullish atmosphere is strong.

According to Coinclass data, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has increased its outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts to 111,080 BTC (valued at $4.08 billion), surpassing Binance’s 104,100 BTC (valued at $3.83 billion), making it the largest exchange with outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts.

With the acceleration of Bitcoin horizontal trading and Altcoin rotation, bullish sentiment in the crypto market continues to strengthen.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has remained in the range of $34,000 to $36,000. The two-week consolidation of Bitcoin has led people to turn to Altcoins, especially Solana. CME traders have also continued to increase their upward risk exposure, and CME’s open interest continues to reach new highs, reaching 105,000 BTC ($3.7 billion).

The weekly inflow of futures based ETFs has also seen a significant increase, with ProShares’ BITO setting the third largest weekly Bitcoin inflow since November 2021.

However, JPMorgan Chase expressed doubts about the sustainability of the recent surge in the crypto market, stating that “the rebound in cryptocurrencies seems somewhat excessive.” JPMorgan analysts say the two main factors that seem to have led to the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past month are the prospect of Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved in the United States and the SEC’s failure in Ripple and Grayscale legal cases.

However, analysts are “skeptical” of these factors or arguments. They are “cautious about the future crypto market.”

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

Last night, BTC briefly touched the $38,000 key level and met the previously suggested target of $37,800 in price increase. As expected, a significant price swing occurred, with a 6.2% range, and it has been steadily retracing. In the short term, it is expected to maintain stability above the $35,300 range, and the overall trend remains bullish.

A discussion on how to identify significant price swings: Typically, after a prolonged uptrend, if the short-term bottom divergence rate is too high and the price movement becomes too rapid, while the futures market sees a contrary increase in positions, it may indicate a precursor to a long-short showdown, as seen in the rapid price drop following the target hit in this case.

ETH

Due to news about iShares Ethereum Trust and six other institutions applying for an ETF, the secondary market buying volume has increased. In the short term, the price has risen from $1,845 to the resistance level at $2,135, with the current price almost reaching the target.

The daily chart has attempted to break the $2,135 resistance level for the third time and is reaching a relative high not seen in a year and a half. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain stability at $2,037, and this attempt is likely to push through $2,135 and head towards $2,381. It is also expected to lead the altcoin market rotation. The limit order recommendation is to maintain stability at $2,045.

RIO

The global asset market has been leading the rally. The long-term strategy has seen significant gains from a low of $0.1075 to over four times the current price. The phase tops are at $0.4650, $0.6060, and $0.9952, with long-term target tops at $5.22 and $8.88.

Macro: Multiple Federal Reserve officials following Powell’s hawkish stance, is it still too early to stop raising interest rates?

On Thursday, due to new signs of labor market weakness in the US unemployment data, the US dollar index fell to a session low. Subsequently, boosted by Powell’s hawkish remarks, it jumped to near the 106 level and ultimately closed up 0.36% at 105.91.

The recent gains of the three major US stock indices have come to an end due to the hawkish stance of Powell and the cold selling of 30-year US bonds. The Dow closed down 0.65%, the Nasdaq closed down 0.94%, and the S&P 500 index closed down 0.8%.

The 30-year US bond auction showed poor demand, and US bond yields resumed their upward trend. The 30-year US bond yield closed at 4.772%, while the 10-year US bond yield closed at 4.628%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, recovered 5% to 5.029%.

Spot gold ended its three-day consecutive decline, breaking away from its nearly three-week low and briefly breaking the $1,960 mark. It eventually closed up 0.45% at $1,958.6 per ounce; Spot silver rose 0.48% to close at $22.64 per ounce.

International oil prices fluctuated horizontally. WTI crude oil closed almost flat at $75.54 per barrel, and the spot price difference of WTI crude oil has shifted to a futures premium for the first time since July; Brent crude oil briefly broke the 81 mark in the trading session, then wiped out most of the day’s gains and ended up 0.23% higher at $79.87 per barrel.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech stating that if appropriate, the Federal Reserve will not hesitate to further tighten monetary policy. After Powell’s speech, short-term interest rate futures traders in the United States postponed their expectation of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut from May next year to June.

Acting Chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve O’Neill Pace said, “It is too early to rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at this stage.”

Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said, “I don’t think we have yet completed the interest rate hike; The pressure of inflation in the service industry is still ongoing.” Federal Reserve Governor Bowman reiterated his expectation that further policy rate hikes will be needed.

Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick stated that policy may already be restrictive enough. The Federal Reserve will maintain a tightening stance until inflation rate drops to 2%.

Chicago Fed Chairman Gullsby stated that the Fed will need to be vigilant about the risk of interest rate overshoots. It is still too early to discuss whether or when to shift the focus to interest rate cuts.

Officials’ interest rate hikes have once again raised concerns in the market, but the crypto market has not been affected. Currently, it is an independent market trend, which is also our previous prediction of a market outbreak by the end of the year. We should not be affected by macroeconomic policies, at least for the next three months.