Why is XRP not a "easy-to-play asset" in June?

The price of XRP has recorded a significant fall in recent days, eroding almost all of the gains made in May and shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend as we enter June.

As this altcoin approaches the end of Q2, traders and investors are questioning whether this falling trend will continue or if XRP will experience a recovery in the near future.

XRP is not a "playable asset" in June

According to historical data, June is often a challenging month for XRP investors. Over the past 11 years, the average return of XRP in June has recorded a negative level of up to -8.49%. This indicates that June may not be an ideal time for those hoping for profits, especially considering recent losses.

This model reinforces the ability of XRP to continue its downward trend in June, and investors need to be cautious as this seasonal weakness factor may increase bearish sentiment, adding further pressure on the price of this currency.

Monthly profit of XRP from 2013 to present | Source: CryptoRank## Long-term investors sell off

Looking at broader signals in the market, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index of XRP is recording a significant increase. CDD is an index that measures the total number of days that coins have been "destroyed" ( meaning sold ), especially from long-term investors (LTH).

Specifically, CDD is calculated by multiplying the number of coins spent in a transaction by the number of days those coins have been held since the previous transaction. For example, if 100 coins are held for 10 days and then spent, CDD would be 1,000 (100 coins × 10 days).

Currently, the CDD of XRP has reached 337 billion, the highest level since December 2024. This sudden increase indicates a strong wave of sell-off from long-term investors, possibly aimed at taking profits before the price continues to fall.

! CDD of XRP | Source: GlassnodeThis sell-off from seasoned investors suggests that XRP's ability to recover in price in the near term may be limited. Long-term investors (LTH) seen as a solid pillar of an asset, so any sell-off from them could have a negative impact on the value of the coin.

However, XRP still has a notable positive factor: the lawsuit with the SEC is nearing its conclusion. According to forecasts, this will soon be resolved, creating an important development for XRP.

Alexis Sirkia, CEO of Yellow, believes that this will be a key factor in accelerating Ripple's ICO process.

"Of course, everyone is waiting for the outcome of the SEC lawsuit and the timing of Ripple's ICO. Ripple currently holds the largest amount of XRP in the cryptocurrency space, even surpassing Strategy. With 50% of the XRP supply in hand, if Ripple becomes a public company, it will be an attractive investment opportunity, with over 120 billion USD in XRP in the treasury – double that of Strategy. Ripple will become the largest publicly traded cryptocurrency company in the world, and I believe this will attract significant attention and investment, thereby boosting the value of XRP."

Recovery potential from the SEC lawsuit and new expectations

Nevertheless, XRP is not lacking in positive factors. In particular, the lawsuit with the SEC has reached its conclusion and is expected to be resolved in the near future. This is seen as an important turning point for XRP, creating strong momentum for this cryptocurrency.

Alexis Sirkia, CEO of Yellow, emphasized that the outcome of the SEC lawsuit will be a strong catalyst, driving the growth momentum of Ripple. According to him, if Ripple moves towards becoming a public company, with over 120 billion XRP in its treasury, this coin will become an attractive asset with significant interest from investors.

XRP has started a downward trend since mid-May and is currently trading around 2.14 USD. Although it has maintained important support at 2.12 USD, the short-term outlook suggests the possibility of further declines if the downward momentum remains strong.

If the XRP price breaks the $2.12 support level, it is very likely that the coin will slide to $2.02 and possibly to the $1.94 level. This will create a new low in the last two months, increasing selling pressure in the future. The RSI is currently below neutral, indicating a lack of buying momentum and forecasting the possibility of further decline.

However, there is still one factor that could change the trend of XRP in the near future – the launch of the XRP ETF. It is one of the most anticipated ETFs, although it has not yet been officially approved. When this ETF is given the green light, it is forecast that there will be a large investment in XRP, which can help the price of this coin recover strongly.

Sirkia commented:

"There seems to be a marked change in investor interest, as the holdings of ETFs like Grayscale have sharply decreased, while companies holding Bitcoin like Strategy have seen significant growth in their holdings. Therefore, new investors entering XRP, such as Hyperscale or VivoPower, may play a more important role in the future compared to XRP ETFs when they are approved. As we have seen from Strategy, having indirect investment options in XRP may be more important than any ETF approval."

XRP is currently in a difficult stage, but the conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and the potential launch of an ETF in the future could be key factors that help change the landscape. Meanwhile, if XRP can maintain the support level of 2.12 USD and break through the resistance levels at 2.27 USD, then a recovery to 2.50 USD is entirely feasible.

Lilly