Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Ended? Whales Are Pulling Back, Retail Investors Are Slowing Down

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has leveraged today's bearish momentum to release a detailed 10-part analysis titled "Bitcoin Market Analysis" on X, examining the post-ATH context with detailed on-chain data and a clear technical analysis line. "Bitcoin has broken above the all-time high, but the issue here is: long-term holders are [starting] to sell as the price increases," he wrote, adding that the important thing now is how the market will handle that supply above and around the breakout zone. In his view, the first pressure test is underway. Has the Bitcoin price increase ended? The series of articles revolves around a notable data point: "the selling pressure of LTH includes 80,000 BTC sold by Satoshi-era wallets." This description is how Maartunn interprets the unusual movement of eight "ancient" wallets in July that transferred approximately 80,000 BTC after about 14 years of inactivity through Galaxy Digital. In addition to the drama of this individual entity, Maartunn argues that the behavior of the entire group of holders is the dominating factor in the market. "Retail investors are stepping in after reaching the ATH peak," he noted, while describing a familiar pattern of excitement at the end of the cycle after Bitcoin surpassed the $120,000 mark in mid-July. That price surge set a new record near $123,000 before the momentum gradually fell; the spot price is currently fluctuating around $113,000–$115,000. The bids have not completely vanished. "New capital has helped buyers break the peak," Maartunn wrote, pointing out the balance sheet demand "from companies like Strategy and Metaplanet." These purchases can be verified; Strategy — now known as MicroStrategy — announced the acquisition of 21,021 BTC from July 28 to August 3 at an average price of about $117,256, raising its total BTC holdings to approximately 628,791 BTC. Metaplanet listed in Tokyo purchased an additional 463 BTC on August 4, bringing its total treasury bond holdings to 17,595 BTC. However, the analyst noted that this corporate capital flow "is not enough to keep Bitcoin at around $120,000." This topic turns to a more cautious stance when it comes to short-term trades. "Short-term holders are starting to vomit and sell at a loss," Maartunn writes, quantifying the actual loss events as 52,230 BTC (15–18 months 7), 42,493 BTC (24–28 months 7), and 70,028 BTC "after July 31." He calls the final loss event notable "not only [in] scale but also in timing," arguing that the execution of prolonged STH losses is a pressure valve that often needs time to fully release. This is Maartunn's on-chain statistics; they have not yet been individually published by data providers as a summary.

The cash flow picture from listed products has begun to resonate with that tension. "ETF funds are also witnessing outflows," he remarked. Many tracking tools have confirmed the decline: CoinShares recorded the first net outflow in 15 weeks of 223 million dollars, with Bitcoin funds leading at -404 million dollars, while daily figures this week show that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds have decreased over several sessions, including a drop of about -196 million dollars on Tuesday. The time frame may vary, but the trend is very clear: the purchase price from ETF funds is fluctuating within a range. Technically, Maartunn focuses attention on the previous breakout zone. "Bitcoin is finding support around its previous ATH — about $112,000," he wrote, pointing out the interplay between chart structure and on-chain price distribution. His on-chain map "supports this," marking "strong support around $108,000–$112,000," an area where a large volume of cryptocurrency has changed hands last.

The context is very important. Bitcoin's all-time high in July reached around $123,000 by major standards - an extension of the strong rally of 2025 - so calling $112,000 the "previous ATH" refers to a breakout in the short term before the price is explored, not an absolute record. It is this nuance that is why Maartunn concludes with a condition: "So far in this cycle, we have not seen any previous ATHs broken... Until that changes, this looks like a normal pullback. But if we break below the previous ATH of (112.000 dollars), that would be a real change in market behavior." In the short term, the reliability of the "support" around 108,000–112,000 dollars may be determined by whether the supply from long-term investors taking profits, short-term investors facing losses, and ETF buybacks continue to exceed the demand from the balance sheet and organic spot capital flows. If this support holds, Maartunn's base scenario is "a normal pullback" that alleviates the excess from the ATH push. He argues that if it fails clearly, the cycle will show the first significant breakdown of a previous breakout - a notable change in behavior rather than a narrative expression. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)