On June 5th, Jin10 Data reported that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.1%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates through August is 83.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.1%.

A series of recent data has heightened concerns about the momentum of US economic growth, and ADP may continue the trend of moderate data; CTA amplifies oil price fluctuations, but the range of 70/72 US dollars should be a solid support area.

Golden Ten Data reported on May 1 that the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, while the data for March was revised upward to 208,000. The strong hiring was broad-based, with the leisure and hospitality sector particularly strong with an increase of 56,000. The pay rise for those who changed jobs fell from 10.1% to 9.3% year-on-year. This is a step in the right direction, but still higher than the 7.3% year-on-year pump in January. Retained pay rises 5% year-on-year, slightly lower than in March. At least wage rise has slowed for job-changers, which is a small consolation for the Fed, but not enough to incentivize the Central Bank to change its strategy.

ADP report: US private sector added 192,000 jobs in April. After slowing down at the end of last year, the average hiring pace over the past three months has accelerated, almost matching the growth rate in the first half of 2023. In addition, wage growth continues to slow down.

金十数据5月1日讯,瑞讯银行高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表会死,在美肨决议日到来之际,投资者的情绪并不乐观。 She 一份报告中写道,美联储必须对连续三个月的通胀飙升做出反应,并可能缩减宽松计划。 It is even possible that the United States may drop the period of interest rate cuts in 2024. 鉴于最新的经济数据,这是人们可以合理预期的最鸽派的声明。 第一季度就业成本指数rise幅度超过预期。 而尽管消费者都會望,但尚未导於支出放缓。 投资者稍后将关注ADP、PMI和其他数据,但这不会改变第一季度就业数据强劲、通胀显有rise的事实。

(1) 14:00 UK April Nationwide House Price Index MoM (2) 16:30 UK Manufacturing PMI (Apr) (3) 20:15 U.S. APRIL ADP Employment (4) 21:45 U.S. APR GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI Final (5) 22:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (6) 22:00 U.S. JOLTs job shorts (7) 22:00 U.S. March Construction Spending MoM (8) 22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week to April 26 (9) 22:30 U.S. EIA Cushing crude oil inventories for the week to April 26 (10) 22:30 U.S. EIA STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE INVENTORIES FOR THE WEEK TO APRIL 26 (11) 02:00 the next day Fed announces Intrerest rate decision (12) 02:30 the next day Fed Chairman Powell holds a press conference

(1) 04:30 U.S. API CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FOR WEEK TO APRIL 26 (2) 14:00 U.K. APRIL Nationwide House Price Index MoM (3) 16:30 UK MANUFACTURING PMI (4) 20:15 U.S. APRIL ADP EMPLOYMENT (5) 21:45 U.S. APR GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI Final (6) 22:00 U.S. ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (7) 22:00 U.S. JOLTs job shorts (8) 22:00 U.S. March construction spending (9) 22:30 US EIA crude oil inventories for the week to April 26 (10) 22:30 US EIA Cushing crude oil inventories for the week to April 26 (11) 22:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week to April 26 (12) 02:00 the next day Fed announces Intrerest rate decision (13) 02:30 the next day Fed Chairman Powell holds a press conference

On April 29th, Golden Ten Data reported that Kexing Pharmaceutical has reached an international commercialization licensing agreement with Qinfeng Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Kerui Pharmaceuticals, for Olaparib tablets. Kexing Pharmaceutical has obtained the commercialization rights of Olaparib tablets in the first batch of 10 countries overseas through Qinfeng Pharmaceutical. Olaparib tablets are PARP (Poly ADP-ribose Polymerase) inhibitors. The original drug was first approved by the U.S. FDA in 2014 for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer with BRCA mutations. Subsequently, its indications have been expanded to include various malignant tumors such as ovarian cancer, breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and prostate cancer. It is recommended as a first-line treatment for breast cancer and a first-line maintenance treatment for ovarian cancer in the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines.

1. Monday: ①Data: Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index Final Value, Economic Sentiment Index; German April CPI Monthly Rate Initial Value; US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. ②Event: Domestic refined oil will start a new round of price adjustment window. ③Tokyo Stock Exchange closed. 2. Tuesday: ①Data: Japan March Unemployment Rate; China April Official Manufacturing PMI; China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI; France Q1 GDP Annual Rate Initial Value; France April CPI Monthly Rate; Switzerland April KOF Economic Leading Indicator; German April Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Number, Unemployment Rate; German Q1 GDP Annual Rate Initial Value; UK March Bank of England Mortgage Approvals; Eurozone April CPI Annual Rate Initial Value, CPI Monthly Rate, Q1 GDP Annual Rate Initial Value; Canada February GDP Monthly Rate; US Q1 Labor Cost Index Quarterly Rate; US February FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate; US February S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index Annual Rate; US April Chicago PMI; US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. ②Closed: China Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Gold Exchange, no night trading due to Labor Day. ③Earnings Report: Amazon. 3. Wednesday: ①Data: US Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Weekly EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories; UK April Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate; UK April Manufacturing PMI; US April ADP Employment Change; US April Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value; US April ISM Manufacturing PMI; US March JOLTs Job Openings; US March Construction Spending Monthly Rate. ②Closed: China, China Taiwan, China Hong Kong, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy stock markets closed. 4. Thursday: ①Data: US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision; Switzerland April CPI Monthly Rate, Switzerland April CPI Monthly Rate; France, Germany, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI Final Value; US April Challenger Job Cuts; US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and US March Trade Balance; US March Factory Orders Monthly Rate; US EIA Natural Gas Stocks as of April 26. ②Event: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a press conference on monetary policy. ③Closed: China Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, domestic futures exchanges closed; Hong Kong Stock Exchange opens as usual, southbound and northbound trading closed. ④Earnings Report: Apple, Shell. 5. Friday: ①Data: France March Industrial Production Monthly Rate; UK April Services PMI; Eurozone March Unemployment Rate; US April Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls; US April Markit Global Services PMI Final Value; US April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. ②Closed: Tokyo Stock Exchange, China Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, domestic futures exchanges closed; Hong Kong Stock Exchange opens as usual, southbound and northbound trading closed. 6. Saturday: ①Data: US Total Oil Rigs as of May 3. ②Event: FOMC Permanent Voters, New York Fed President Williams, Fed Governor Lael Brainard speak; Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting. 7. Sunday: ①Event: Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month.

Timeline of this week's key events: Bitcoin volatility has weakened significantly over the past week, while the largest quarterly delivery in history has released a large amount of margin On the macro front: Friday's unemployment data will be the main focus this week, and there will be a number of FOMC voters speaking this week, which will also be worth watching. Powell's recent speech has reiterated the expectation of a rate cut, but the high interest rate market will continue, slightly exceeding previous market expectations. At present, the market is fiercely contested at $70,000, the market lacks hot spots, and traders are generally in a wait-and-see mode. Crypto: Bitcoin volatility has weakened significantly over the past week, while the largest quarterly delivery in history has released a large amount of margin, but the main maturity IV has not seen a significant decline, and Dvol remains high. Dvol is facing more downward pressure, and major maturity IV, led by short- and medium-term option IV, is likely to decline gradually. This week's highlights: Tuesday, April 2 The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting; Wednesday, April 3rd US ADP Employment (March); Thursday, April 4th ECB releases the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting;

Odaily Planet Daily News Greeks.live released this week's market outlook: This week is a macro week, the U.S. unemployment rate data and some major Central Bank Intrerest Rate decisions are noteworthy, crypto-related events are mainly that the SEC will apply for a resolution on the Fidelity Ethereum Spot ETF, but it is extremely unlikely to pass, and the market is now unanimously believing that it is impossible. At present, the Mainstream Token market Spot buyers are still very strong, and this week is very promising to hit a new high, while the Derivatives data began to be gradually active last week, and the market leverage level gradually increased. The strong Spot Bull Market has driven market sentiment, and the expectation of accelerating the upward rush is greater. 3/5 Tue* The U.S. SEC will issue a decision on the Fidelity Ethereum Spot ETF application 3/6 Wed* US ADP employment in February Canada Central Bank Intrerest Rate decided Thursday, 7/3** The Central Bank's main refinancing Intrerest rate U.S. jobless claims for the week The Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book on Economic Conditions 3/8 Fri*** U.S. unemployment rate for February U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls for February BTC is now in a Spot Bull Market gradually driving Derivatives Bull Market, BTC major maturity Options IV has returned to more than 70%, and has now returned to the high level before the FTX crash, far exceeding last year's average. Options are still options with high profit and loss, and the bullish option can choose the end of the month, and the bearish option is more suitable for the short-term of the week. In terms of the crypto Intrerest Rate market, the market has recently returned to activity, but the green leaf Intrerest Rate market is relatively sluggish, and it is recommended to hold the previous higher Intrerest Rate orders in the near future.

🔥Today's Top 5 Hot Search List🔥 💥PEOPLE: +36.76% 💥ADP: +16.75% 💥BONK: +19.79% 💥WIF: +18.24% 💥ONDO: +13.75% [Grinning Face] Which coin do you favor more? Feel free to discuss in the comments section👏

🔥Hot Searches [March 1] 🥇$PEOPLE$ 🥈$ADP$ 🥉$BONK$ Explore More: http://www.gate.io/trade

[ What to say 👀 at the first FOMC meeting in 2024 ] At the 2024/1 Fed Intrerest Rate decision-making meeting, the policy Intrerest Rate remained unchanged as expected, in the range of 5.25 ~ 5.5%. This conference conveys two main points: 📍 Timing of interest rate cuts is expected to be managed 📍 A signal that the speed of shrinkage is about to be adjusted 1) Timing of the first rate cut: There will be no rate cut in March, and expectations management will be carried out When the draft statement removes any appropriate tightening language and changes it to Intrerest Rate consider "any adjustments", a two-way risk assessment will be conducted, revealing that there is an opportunity for a precautionary rate cut as long as the slowdown in inflation continues, or if the job market unexpectedly weakens Note: The more hawkish expectation management of the Fed directly conveyed the signal that the March interest rate cut was not the basic scenario of the Fed members, and emphasized that the members need to be confident that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target before they start to consider interest rate cuts (judging that the main purpose of the hawkish speech is to manage the market's interest rate cut expectations) 2) Balance sheet reduction speed discussion: There will be an in-depth discussion at the March meeting The monthly balance sheet reduction of 95 billion yuan has not been adjusted in any way, but from the Q&A at Powell's post-meeting press conference, he positively acknowledged that the committee members had discussed the balance sheet situation, and said that it was time to start discussing the balance sheet and the speed of the balance sheet reduction (sic: we're getting to that time where questions are beginning to come into greater focus about the pace of runoff and all that.） At the same time, Powell responded to reporters' questions, saying that he does not believe that slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction will require seeing the ON RRP go to zero, and the details will be discussed in depth at the March meeting Under the overall easing trend, stocks and bonds are still in the best situation of synchronous allocation in the first half of the year It is also necessary to pay attention to this Friday's non-farm data, as long as there is a moderate slowdown as the small non-farm ADP monthly increase of 107,000 (the first 158,000), the fundamentals and capital will have a supporting effect on the stock market that has rebounded Track the market ✅ Follow 👍 press up #行情分析# #总经# #新闻# #利息#

Odaily Planet Daily News Greeks.live Macro researcher Adam released this week's market outlook on the X platform (1/29-2/4): This week is a macro week, and many macroeconomic data will be released with the Federal Reserve's Intrerest Rate decision as the core. However, the overall expectations are consistent, and the correlation between macro data and the crypto market has weakened, and the current main term IV is low, and the Fluctuation is not expected. The impact of BTC Spot ETFs has ended, and the impact of grayscale's selling pressure on the market has also weakened significantly, and investors are looking for the next hot spot. 1/31 Wed* -US ADP Employment in January - Central Bank of Japan Releases Summary of Opinions of Members of March Monetary Policy Meeting 2/1 Thursday*** - Fed Intrerest Rate decision - UK Central BankIntrerest Rate decision - US initial jobless claims for the week 2/2 Friday** - US Unemployment Rate (Jan) - US Nonfarm Payrolls (January). - U.S. final U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January In addition, the Fluctuation brought by BTC Spot ETFs to the market has subsided, and the main maturity Options IV is at a very low level, which is now below 50% of the full maturity, and it is very cost-effective to buy now. The current market is in a rebound after panic, and the win rate of buying the dips for short-term bullishness is high. In terms of the crypto Intrerest Rate market, as the market returns to calm, leverage levels have begun to quietly recover, Intrerest Rate the market has Rebound from the low water mark, and some high-Interest orders have started to appear recently.

Fundamental Overview: XAU/USD Trading in a Narrow Range XAU/USD showed minimal changes within the $2,040 range on Thursday, retreating from early session gains during U.S. trading hours. The U.S. dollar faced slight pressure late Wednesday, influenced by mixed data from the United States and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve met in mid-December, where Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that policymakers discussed the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, the minutes did not provide clues about the timing of the Fed's planned actions, only hinting at the potential in 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. released the ADP Employment Report, revealing the addition of 164,000 private-sector jobs, surpassing market expectations of 115,000. The report also indicated that the labor market remains "well-suited for pre-pandemic hiring," somewhat signaling a more stable employment situation. On Friday, the U.S. will unveil the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for September, expected to show an addition of 170,000 new jobs to the economy. （Source from: TV-padora1493）