Meme coin market analysis: Liquidity layering and excess return acquisition strategies

Meme Coin Market Analysis: How to Obtain Excess Returns?

Recently, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $70,000 mark, and the market greed index has risen to 80. Meme coins, as a barometer of the bull market, have attracted the attention of investors once again. By analyzing the trading data of the current top 25 Meme coins in the market, we have identified some noteworthy market characteristics and development trends.

Market Segmentation and Liquidity Distribution

In terms of the number of holders, several major Meme coin projects such as SHIB, DOG, DOGE, MEME, and DEGEN have more than 800,000 addresses, with SHIB leading by a wide margin at 1.51 million addresses. These projects also account for a high trading volume in the overall market.

The number of holding addresses for BONK and BRETT exceeds 700,000, while the holding addresses for projects like PEPE and WIF are 320,000 and 180,000 respectively. It is worth noting that the holding address growth rates for the latter two projects have reached 3.02% and 4.86% in the past 30 days, surpassing most of the previously mentioned Meme coins.

MEW and MIGGLES are the only two Meme coins with over 100,000 holding addresses, with MIGGLES achieving a growth rate of 26.55% in the last 30 days. Tokens such as HIGHER, FLOKI, POPCAT, MOCHI, PONKE, MOODENG, MYRO make up the project group in the 50,000-100,000 holding address range, but the liquidity of these projects is relatively limited.

Meme coin market analysis: How to achieve excess returns?

Market Sentiment Indicator: Price Volatility Analysis

The price of Meme coin is often closely related to social hot events. For example, the trading comparison index for TRUMP is 1.66, with a price increase of 15.9%, which is closely related to the recent political situation in the United States.

SHIB and WIF had trading volumes of 70.2 billion and 67.3 billion USD respectively over the past 7 days, far exceeding other projects. By comparing trading volumes and price fluctuations, we found that projects with higher trading volumes (such as SHIB and DOGE) have relatively mild price fluctuations, while projects with lower trading volumes tend to have larger fluctuations.

This indicates that large market cap Meme coins are gradually acquiring "store of value" properties, with investors tending to hold long-term and adopt a "buy the dip" strategy. In contrast, small market cap Meme coins more often act as speculative tools, exhibiting stronger short-term volatility. This liquidity stratification may lead to an exacerbation of market polarization.

The address and price change ratios reflect the immediate changes in liquidity. HIGHER and MOODENG have seen liquidity increases of 2.32% and 1.98% in the short term, and this unusual inflow may indicate price volatility. Conversely, TURBO and PONKE have experienced liquidity outflows of -0.31% and -0.13%, respectively, and this slow but steady outflow may suggest a gradual weakening of market confidence.

For investors, this means that they need to be more cautious in assessing the liquidity risks of projects, rather than just focusing on price fluctuations. In this rapidly changing market, the importance of risk management may outweigh the pursuit of returns.

Transaction Security Data Analysis

Current market data shows that authenticity verification and contract security assessment have become the primary aspects of investment decision-making. There may be two situations behind the market manipulation of Meme coin trading: one is that the project party attempts to create trading activity to rise on the DEX leaderboard; the other is the presence of bots manipulating the market. Therefore, it is necessary to identify real community interactions before trading.

By analyzing the contract of the holding addresses of the Meme币 project, several major risks have been identified: excessively high centralization of authority, lack of liquidity lock, and a large overlap of holding addresses.

Specifically, a pattern of frequent interaction between a core address and multiple dispersed addresses is particularly common in some emerging projects with abnormal 24-hour gains, which often indicates the risk of centralized control. Secondly, it is necessary to monitor whether there are complex capital flows between multiple large holding addresses, as this may suggest that large speculative groups are operating behind the scenes.

For newcomers to Meme coins, it is important to focus on the degree of decentralized holdings, which is more common in mature projects like SHIB or PEPE. However, it is worth noting that even in such projects, the top 100 addresses still control the vast majority of the supply.

Social Influence Analysis

Generally speaking, a successful Meme coin project typically needs endorsements from 3 to 5 KOLs with over 100,000 followers. However, this metric is changing.

Currently, a high number of followers is no longer a decisive factor. For example, HIGHER, although only supported by medium-sized KOLs, has shown stronger upward potential. This reflects a market shift towards de-KOLization. The distribution of KOL endorsements over time has a significant impact on project performance. Projects that concentrate on gaining multiple KOL endorsements in a short period often perform worse than those with endorsements spread over different periods.

Key Indicator System

Based on the statistical analysis of successful cases, we have summarized the following key indicators:

  1. Trading Volume Indicator: The organic trading volume (excluding bot trading) of a solid project within the first hour of launch should reach $500-$1000. This is below the threshold of $1000-$2000 that is typically considered in the industry, but a lower initial threshold is actually beneficial for the sustainable development of the project.

  2. Market Cap Threshold: $100,000 is a critical psychological barrier. Data shows that 87% of successful projects only begin to see substantial growth after surpassing this market cap. However, this threshold varies across different sectors; for example, AI-themed meme coins often require a higher initial market cap.

  3. Supply Distribution: The holding ratio of the founding team is an important indicator. Statistics show that when the founding team's holdings are below 5%, the survival rate of the project significantly increases. This may be because a lower team holding reduces the risk of sell pressure and increases community confidence.

Meme coin market analysis: How to achieve excess returns?

Risk Warning Mechanism

  1. Basic Indicator Monitoring: Real-time tracking of trading volume, position distribution, price fluctuations, and other basic data, with the ability to set alarm thresholds for abnormal fluctuations.

  2. On-chain behavior analysis: Monitor the movements of large addresses, especially interactions with known risk addresses. At the same time, track changes in liquidity pools to provide early warnings of potential sell-off behaviors. Establish a dynamic stop-loss system, setting different stop-loss ratios based on the different stages of project development.

  3. Social Signal Monitoring: Establish a KOL database to identify potential market manipulation signals. Pay special attention to unusual activity on social media, look for opportunities on new public chains, and diversify the investment portfolio.

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GhostAddressHuntervip
· 07-31 02:02
It's better to lay out a public chain than to focus on memes.
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MoonRocketmanvip
· 07-30 23:39
The rocket is about to ignite.
View OriginalReply0
ForkYouPayMevip
· 07-30 23:36
Playing with memes is not as good as playing with life, truth.
View OriginalReply0
RetailTherapistvip
· 07-30 23:19
Be careful, suckers can't be played for suckers.
View OriginalReply0
TokenTaxonomistvip
· 07-30 23:11
Beware of high-level killing opportunities
View OriginalReply0
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