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Gold price: The price of gold is not afraid of higher U.S. bond yields, and one factor supports the bullish price of gold!
Gold prices dragged down by higher U.S. bond yields
Gold prices continue to fluctuate around $1,940. Heading into Tuesday's trading session, geopolitical factors could offset market headwinds, resulting in lower volatility for the precious metal.
U.S. real yields have been moving higher through much of 2023, with the 10-year Treasury yield curve recently reaching its highest level in 14 years. The real yield is the nominal yield minus the market-priced inflation rate obtained from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity.
The last time real yields were this high was in 2009, when spot gold was priced at less than $1,000. The most recent time was in 2018, when the real yield was close to 1.0% and the spot gold price was less than $1,300.
Gold price trend vs. US 10-year bond yield trend
BRIC countries buy gold in large quantities
Of course, the market has changed dramatically since then, and the tide of gold demand is coming as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) seek reserve currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
Recently, many believe that a gold-based currency has the potential to allow these countries to bypass the U.S. dollar in international trade. This system has proven to fail in the past for many reasons that I won’t go into in this article.
Many people have reportedly seen every ounce of gold recently dug out of the ground in Western Australia, one of the world's largest physical gold producing areas, being shipped to China. Similar actions by other BRIC members have been reported elsewhere. Keep in mind that Australia, China and Russia are also the largest producers of gold, so hoarding may be a feature of recent gold price action.
(Source: Dailyfx-Daniel McCarthy)