Conversation with Trader HighFreedom: A bull run is coming, Q4 may迎 a new round of main rise.

HighFreedom is a cryptocurrency investor with a background in brokerage macroeconomic analysis, having seven to eight years of investment experience in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that the market is currently at a "bottom within a bottom" position and is expected to welcome a new bull run in the fourth quarter.

1. HighFreedom's Trading Strategy

1. Earn directional profits: During a bull run, hold Bitcoin without moving it to earn the overall rise profits.

2. Earn volatility profits: Establish a coin-based long position in the appropriate price range, close the position after the price rises, and increase Bitcoin holdings.

3. Control leverage: Generally keep leverage within 50% to ensure a larger safety margin.

4. Expected returns: Achieve an overall return of 3-5 times during a bull run cycle, with drawdown controlled at 20%-30%, and in extreme cases, 40%.

5. Applicable capital scale: a million-dollar level is more suitable, but there are differences based on individual expected returns.

2. Views on the Current Market

1. Market participants are divided into two categories:

• In-house people: seasoned players in the crypto space, with many coins but little money, focusing on cycles, popular tracks, on-chain data, and more.
• OTC people: Enter through channels like ETFs, with a lot of money but few coins, viewing Bitcoin as a risk asset.

2. Bitcoin positioning: a growth-type digital gold, with risk between Russell 2000 and ARKK.

3. Recent reasons for the big drop:

• July 4: On-site leverage clearing
• August 5: Off-exchange leverage cleanup, related to the overall decline of risk assets.

4. Future Trend Prediction:

• The fourth quarter is expected to usher in a new bull run.
• Bitcoin price is expected to reach 100,000 USD by the end of the year.
• The performance of altcoins may emerge, but the extent depends on the overall market risk appetite.

III. Suggestions for Trader Growth Path

1. Obtain CFA Level 1 certification and systematically study the fundamentals of financial markets.

2. Pay attention to market dynamics daily and analyze the reasons behind the Token's price increase.

3. Learn on-chain data analysis:

• Macroeconomic: Pay attention to data from platforms like Glassnode.
• Specific projects: analyze token economic models, unlocking conditions, etc.

4. Follow the opinions of outstanding traders: such as Fu Peng, Arthur Hayes, Victor, etc.

4. Indicators Worth Noting

1. Supply situation of short-term and long-term holders

2. US Stock Risk Appetite Indicators: Russell 2000, ARKK, GME, AMC and other stock performance

3. VIX Fear Index

4. The market value of Bitcoin as a proportion of the market value of gold