Latest Trends and Forecast Analysis of the Crypto Market

Market Observation

The global economic situation is facing new uncertainties. The US and Europe have reached an agreement on trade issues, which has avoided a full-blown trade war, but there are differences in the details of the agreement, introducing new variables for the economy. At the same time, market focus has shifted to the domestic situation in the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this week, but is under pressure to cut rates. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve may create conditions for a rate cut in September. This week is seen as a "truth moment", as, in addition to the interest rate decision, key data such as earnings reports from tech giants, GDP, and employment figures will be released intensively, testing the resilience of the US economy.

Against this backdrop, the views of industry giants in the encryption sector regarding market cycles have undergone new changes. Some believe that driven by multiple favorable factors, the traditional four-year cycle is no longer applicable, and the market is entering a "sustained and stable prosperity" phase. However, this optimism contrasts with public perception, as surveys show that only 14% of American adults hold cryptocurrencies, and most investors still view them as high-risk assets.

Regarding the recent performance of Bitcoin, some analyses indicate that Bitcoin is experiencing a volatile downward trend after reaching an all-time high, temporarily falling below a key support level. This is believed to be due to a combination of macro and micro pressures: on a macro level, uncertainties surrounding multiple U.S. policies have suppressed risk appetite; on a micro level, there are signs of institutional funds flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with deteriorating market sentiment and bearish technical indicators, which have collectively intensified price fluctuations.

Multiple analysts have provided predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend. Some believe that Bitcoin needs to break through and stabilize above $119,500 to initiate a new round of increases. Others warn that Bitcoin is currently between two key liquidation zones and may first reach the upper zone before reversing to the lower one. The unfilled futures gap also supports this viewpoint. Another analysis points out that reaching historical highs could lead to massive short liquidations. There are also differing expectations for the worst and best-case scenarios.

In terms of Ethereum, some analysts believe that driven by multiple favorable factors, Ethereum is about to break through the long-term resistance level of four years, and a breakout above 4000 dollars this week is almost inevitable.

In terms of other assets, BNB has reached a new high, possibly related to several listed companies increasing their holdings. VINE surged due to hype around related concepts. ZORA continues to reach new highs within the Base ecosystem. The NFT market has also generally risen, with Ethereum on-chain sales exceeding $157 million.

Key Data

• Bitcoin price: $119,465, year-to-date increase of 27.77%
• Ethereum price: $3,933.53, year-to-date increase of 17.76%
• Market Sentiment: Greed (75)
• Main asset market cap distribution: Bitcoin 60%, Ethereum 11.9%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 249 million USD

ETF Fund Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$130 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$453 million, net inflow for 17 consecutive days

Important Events Today

• A trading platform supports the replacement and renaming of LOKA tokens.
• Sui ecosystem Ika project launched mainnet
• Jupiter and Sign tokens will see their unlock.

Market Highlights

• Ethereum's 10th anniversary
• The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be announced.
• Multiple tokens are about to experience significant unlocks
• The NFT market remains active.
• The large transfer of Bitcoin that has been dormant for 14 years has attracted attention.