Crypto Market Dynamics: Bitcoin is under pressure around $118,000, with non-farm payroll data in focus.

Market Overview

On Thursday, the U.S. President signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Countries that do not reach an agreement face higher rates, such as 25% for India, 39% for Switzerland, and 30% for South Africa. Tariffs on Canadian goods have been raised from 25% to 35%, and goods in transit will be subject to a 40% transit tax. This move aims to protect U.S. manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

Latest data shows that the core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, the other side of the economy is showing signs of fatigue, with consumer spending growth slowing, real disposable income remaining flat, and the household savings rate holding steady at 4.5%. Despite the FOMC maintaining interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time this week, two governors have unusually voted in favor of a rate cut, marking the first occurrence in over thirty years. The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized that the current labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy, with the unemployment rate becoming a core concern. The market is focused on the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight, which could be key in determining the direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has fallen to a fifty-fifty chance.

The "Stablecoin Regulation" that Hong Kong is set to implement in August has garnered significant attention. An analyst pointed out that this marks the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework, with its clear framework and credibility attracting numerous companies to apply for licenses. This indicates that the relevant technology will shift from the concept demonstration phase to large-scale commercial deployment.

Crypto Market Analysis

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning but has since rebounded above $115,500. One analyst noted that if Bitcoin loses the key support at $114,000, market conditions could deteriorate. Another analyst believes that if the current descending channel is lost, the next high-risk reward demand zone to watch is between $111,700 and $113,500. Data shows that $115,883 is an important liquidation level. If the price can form a higher low at $115,700, it may be difficult to reach $113,800 again. Looking at the upside potential, if bulls can successfully break through the descending wedge resistance at $118,000, it will open the door for a push towards a new all-time high. The market is absorbing selling pressure in preparation for the next breakout. Should a breakout occur, bearish strategies may need to wait for prices to reach the range of $125,000 to $127,000 before considering. On the fundamental side, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with the buy-sell ratio reaching 100:1, while spot ETFs have resumed net inflows.

Ethereum briefly dropped to around $3600 this morning. Despite facing selling pressure at the $4000 mark, its rebound speed has surpassed Bitcoin, largely due to retail investors actively buying around the $3600 level. However, cautious sentiment remains in the market. Since March of this year, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to break through the psychological barrier of $4000, coupled with a decline in its ecosystem's TVL and DEX trading volume compared to competitors, which has exacerbated investor concerns due to weak on-chain activity. If enterprises continue to increase their Ethereum reserves, its price may aim for $5000. On the trading strategy front, some analysts have adopted a hedging strategy by going long on Ethereum while shorting a basket of altcoins, based on the logic that institutional funds are more likely to flow into ETH, while altcoins face greater uncertainty.

Regulatory and Policy Trends

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has launched a full commission-level "encryption project" aimed at making the U.S. a global center for crypto assets by revising securities rules. The plan includes establishing clear token classification standards, updating custody rules, simplifying trading licenses, setting up principled regulatory pathways for DeFi and tokenized assets, and introducing an "innovation exemption" mechanism.

Other Market Dynamics

Heavy news comes from the traditional financial sector: the founder of Bridgewater Associates has officially stepped down from the board, marking the end of an era at the company, while Bridgewater has introduced a new major shareholder. In addition, a design giant has successfully gone public and it has been revealed that it holds a large amount of Bitcoin, surging 250% at the opening and rising another 25% post-market, now reported at $115. It is reported that the company holds 700,000 BTC and plans to increase its holdings. On-chain data shows its founder's address holds 2.3 million AGLD tokens, worth $1.76 million.

Market Data Overview

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily spot trading volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (year-to-date +11.05%), daily spot trading volume is $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.95%/52.05%
• Sector gains and losses: NFTs down 8.98%; Memes down 8.73%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 160,329 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 630 million dollars.

ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: -$115 million, net outflow for the first time after net inflow in the past 5 days.
• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, sustained net inflow for 20 days

Important Events Today

• Hong Kong begins to implement the Stablecoin Regulation
• The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for the US in July will be released.
• Multiple encryption projects will conduct token unlocks.

Market Performance

Top 100 largest market cap declines today: Pump.fun down 19.1%, SPX6900 down 15.4%, HEX down 14.5%, Pudgy Penguins down 12%, PulseX down 11.9%.

Hot News

• A certain company achieved an operating revenue of 14 billion dollars in Q2, with a net profit of 10 billion dollars.
• Mill City Ventures successfully completed a $450 million private placement and launched the SUI treasury strategy.
• US stocks closed lower: the three major indexes all fell, with new stocks soaring 256%.
• A trading platform increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing its total holdings to 11776 coins.
• White House: Will impose a 39% tariff on Swiss goods and increase tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%
• "An ancient giant whale that held 3963 BTC for 14.5 years" has sold 180 BTC again.
• Galaxy Report: Corporate cryptocurrency assets holdings exceed $100 billion
• Pudgy Penguins CEO: The team has been involved in US encryption legislation, the PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.
• Data: The total value of ETH treasury reserves of 64 entities has exceeded 10 billion USD.
• The publicly traded company xTAO holds 16 million USD in TAO, making it the largest public token holder of Bittensor.
• Kaia's native USDT arrives at tourist spots in South Korea, allowing visitors to exchange cash at stablecoin ATMs.
• DoubleZero launched a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduced the staking token dzSOL.