QCP: The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September boosts Ethereum's momentum, with the Jackson Hole conference being the next focus.

On August 13, QCP released its daily market observation stating that the U.S. July CPI (consumer price index) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%; Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.0%. The relatively mild overall inflation reading reinforced expectations that the Fed will begin a rate cut cycle in September, with most market participants currently anticipating a 25 basis point cut. Previously, commodity inflation, which was expected to rise due to companies passing higher costs onto consumers, instead performed below expectations. Following the data release, the market's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, pricing in about 60 basis points of cut space. Despite a softening labor market and market expectations for a more dovish Fed chair in 2026, the terminal interest rate remains stable. Futures positions show that investors believe the Fed's rate floor in 2026 will be around 3%. With several key risk events materializing, U.S. stocks continue to rise, setting new historical highs. In terms of tariff confrontations, "TACO" remains a core reference for traders, with the extension of tariffs between the U.S. and China extended by 90 days. The geopolitical situation between Ukraine and Russia has eased, with escalation risks seen as a distant possibility, and ceasefire or peace agreements have become the market's baseline scenario. In the cryptocurrency market, long-term holders of ETH have finally welcomed a surge in sentiment, with ETH prices approaching historical highs. The financing by Bitmine to establish an ETH treasury has drawn attention, as the market notes that any fund inflow into ETH has a more significant impact compared to Bitcoin, due to ETH's smaller market capitalization and relatively thin liquidity. As long as funds continue to flow into ETH DAT (Decentralized Asset Token), the current upward momentum of ETH is expected to continue. Looking ahead, the Jackson Hole annual meeting will become the next focus of attention. It is expected that Fed officials will signal a 25 basis point cut in September at the meeting. Before the September FOMC meeting, there is only one more CPI and one non-farm employment data release, which are believed unlikely to materially change the Fed's decision.