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Matrixport: The US market is entering a new round of Liquidity release cycle, and the market trend is expected to continue until 2026.
[Matrixport: The US market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle, and the market is expected to continue until 2026] Matrixport released a weekly report stating that the US market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle, and structural funding support may drive Bitcoin and risk assets to continue rising, with the market expected to last until 2026. The current funding structure, credit environment, and the initial stages of past bull runs are quite similar: abundant liquidity, improving credit environment, and a shift in policy towards dovishness, with multiple favourable information resonating to push asset prices upward. Our model shows that the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts has lagged behind market expectations for 32 consecutive months. To narrow this gap, approximately 62 basis points of cumulative rate cuts will still be needed in the coming months. Since April 2025, the cumulative increase of $74 billion in U.S. commercial and industrial loans shows early signs of a new round of credit expansion cycle. Since June, credit spreads have continued to narrow, and the financing environment has improved, which historically has usually been favourable information for Bitcoin, and this trend has also been preliminarily reflected in Bitcoin's price performance. Our model shows that inflation will gradually fall back to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2%, and volatility is tending to converge, providing more ample policy space for a rate cut in September. Since the "Great Beautiful Act" raised the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, the Treasury has net issued 789 billion dollars in government bonds in less than six weeks. This round of large-scale bond issuance coincides with Bitcoin starting a new upward trend. Historically, during the fiscal expansion period led by Trump, Bitcoin prices often strengthened in sync with government bond issuance.