Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: short-term holders dominate trading, long-term holders maintain steady holdings, the market shows a healthy pullback.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently shown a moderate and orderly trend in its rise, in stark contrast to the previous sharp pumps. Although the current price is above the historical growth trajectory, it is far from entering the overheated zone. On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, 86% of the on-chain volume (valued at $18 billion) came from short-term holders (STHs) who have held for less than 155 days, while long-term holders (LTHs) only contributed 14.5% ($3.1 billion), indicating that Crypto Veterans are holding steady while new entrants dominate market fluctuations. Analysts point out that the price still has about $50,000 space to the previous high and has not touched the red overheated area, suggesting that the upward potential remains. Currently, BTC is at $114,113, and the technical indicators (RSI falling to 43, OBV declining) show that bullish momentum is weakening but not oversold, aligning with the healthy cooling of the market.

Bitcoin is in a controllable rise track, with deviations from indicators showing ample space According to a report by Arab Chain citing CryptoQuant data, the price of Bitcoin follows a Power Law trend, suggesting a steady logarithmic rise over time. This model forms an ascending path on the curve rather than a sudden spike.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

• Current Status: The BTC price is above the expected rise line but far below the marked "red zone" indicating overheat.
• Divergence indicator is positive, but far from historical bubble levels, indicating that the current phase may be a natural growth stage, or it could be an early signal of a new round of bullish bets.

Stay away from the overheated area, there is still upward space Analysts point out that staying below the top alert zone means there is still room for further rise before panic sets in. In past cycles, prices have often rapidly broke through the red zone only to crash immediately. Currently, the Bitcoin price is still about $50,000 away from its recent high, indicating that if buyers choose to push up the price, there is still ample buffer space.

Short-term holders dominate trading, long-term holders firmly hold positions Glassnode on-chain data shows:

• Short-term holders (STHs): 86% (approximately $18 billion) of the on-chain spending volume of Bitcoin in the past 24 hours came from wallets that have been active for less than 155 days.
• Long-term Holders (LTHs): Only account for 14.5% of the spending volume (approximately $3.1 billion). This differentiation means that market fluctuations are primarily driven by new entrants, while experienced long-term holders generally choose to hold and observe.

Long-term holders' confidence demonstrates market resilience The differentiation between STHs and LTHs often indicates the strong confidence of core believers. When long-term holders choose to hold, the extent of price declines is usually more moderate. Buyers who hold for months to years typically view pullbacks as opportunities to get on board rather than selling opportunities.

Technical Analysis: Momentum is weakening but has not reversed As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $114,113, having retreated from a recent high of around $118,000.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The daily RSI has dropped to 43, indicating a weakening bullish momentum, but it has not yet entered the Oversold region.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV): It has shown a downward trend over the past week, indicating that buying pressure is weakening.

Market Cooling ≠ Trend Reversal, Mature Characteristics Emerge The report indicates that this combination of signals is more indicative of a cooling market rather than an imminent crashing market. Traders are taking profits but are not panic selling. The overall situation depicts an increasingly mature market — it still has room for rise, but it is unlikely to replicate the frenzied fluctuations of the past few years.

Conclusion: The current moderate rise of Bitcoin and the on-chain holding structure together outline a picture of a healthy market correction. The active trading of short-term holders brings fluctuation, but the firm holdings of long-term holders build a solid bottom. Prices are running above the growth curve and far from the overheated zone, combined with the ample space indicated by the divergence indicators, suggesting that the upward channel remains solid. Although the technical indicators show a temporary pause in momentum, no deterioration signals have appeared, aligning with the characteristics of consolidation in a bullish market. Investors need to pay attention to the changes in selling pressure from short-term holders and the confidence of long-term holders, capturing the slow bull rhythm after the halving cycle.