Ethereum faces a $300 million OTC Trading dumping, where will the ETH price movement go under the tug-of-war between bulls and bears?

This week, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has fallen nearly 9%, sparking intense discussions in the market regarding the bullish and bearish landscape. Although selling pressure is evident, there is also institutional capital entering the market through OTC Trading, adding uncertainty to this pullback. Will ETH continue to weaken, or will it welcome a new round of rebound? This article analyzes in depth from three aspects: Whale movements, on-chain data, and technical analysis.

Whale Sell-Off and OTC Buying Pressure: A Fierce Battle Between Two Forces

In the past three days, a "Whale" transferred over 33,000 ETH (approximately $119 million) into exchanges, significantly intensifying short-term selling pressure. However, on the other hand, Galaxy Digital's OTC Trading platform quietly completed an ETH acquisition worth $300 million. OTC Trading is usually dominated by institutions, helping to avoid severe fluctuations in the public market, which means long-term funds are quietly positioning themselves.

This phenomenon of selling off while absorbing shows that the market is in a critical tug-of-war stage—sellers are eager to cash out, while institutions are buying on the dips, laying the groundwork for future market movements.

Whale holdings increase, long-term confidence remains strong

According to Glassnode data, the number of "Whale" wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH continues to steadily increase, indicating that large investors remain optimistic about Ethereum's long-term prospects. Additionally, the amount of ETH flowing into exchanges remains low, suggesting that most investors are choosing to hold their coins and have no intention of selling in the short term.

This trend indicates that, despite the intensification of short-term fluctuations, underlying capital has not withdrawn; instead, more "smart money" is actively building positions during the pullback.

on-chain activity is active, ecological foundation is solid

The number of daily active addresses on the Ethereum network has surpassed 674,000, approaching the peak of the 2021 bull market. This reflects a comprehensive rebound in user engagement, transaction volume, and community enthusiasm. It is worth noting that some of the activity may stem from Layer 2 solutions, and investors should closely monitor relevant data to assess the sustainability of this growth.

Overall, the on-chain fundamentals demonstrate strong recovery momentum, providing solid support for the long-term trend of ETH.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

ETH quickly rebounded after touching a low of $3,358 and is currently stabilizing around $3,700. The $3,500~$3,771 range has formed significant confluence support, and if the bulls can hold this area, the next target will point to the $3,896 historical resistance. Once effectively broken, ETH is expected to return to the $4,000 integer level.

On the contrary, if the price falls below $3,358, one should be cautious as the short-term upward trend could be broken, potentially leading to further pullbacks to lower support.

Conclusion: Tug of war between bulls and bears, ETH still has long-term advantages

Despite the significant pullback in Ethereum this week, the increase in Whale holdings, inflow of OTC funds, and the rise in on-chain activity all suggest that the market fundamentals remain healthy. In the short term, the trend of ETH will depend on the defensive strength of the support zone between $3,500 and $3,771. As long as this range holds, the bullish structure is expected to continue, setting the stage for the next rebound. Investors should closely monitor Whale movements and on-chain data to seize good layout opportunities amid the fluctuations.