Monero price prediction: XMR faces a Qubic-led 51% Mining attack, and the selling pressure intensifies, potentially falling to 258 USD.

Unlike the rise of most alts in July, Monero (XMR) has remained stable but is facing severe challenges recently. Qubic is attempting to control more than half of Monero's hashrate, raising community concerns about a 51% Mining attack. Today (30th) during the Asian session, the trading price of XMR is $319.49, with little to no net gain for the month.

The XMR token, which focuses on privacy, has been fluctuating within a narrow range most of the time, between a low of $298.19 and a high of $358.96—this reflects a narrow window of hesitation. While some may view this as an opportunity to acquire more XMR at a discounted price, this analysis holds a different opinion.

XMR is still in a compressed state: Hesitation within the symmetrical triangle

The XMR/USD daily chart clearly shows that Monero has fallen into a symmetrical triangle. The current trend indicates market indecision, with neither the bulls nor the bears fully in control. The price compression within the triangle explains its narrow fluctuations in July. Although this formation sometimes signals a breakout, the price direction of XMR remains uncertain.

In a continuously consolidating market, CCN analyzed the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The MACD has formed a bearish crossover, with readings falling into the negative territory. This position indicates that bearish momentum is forming around XMR, thereby reducing the likelihood of an upward breakout in the short term. Conversely, this setup suggests that Monero may test the lower boundary of its symmetrical triangle. If this support level fails, the price of XMR could drop to $297.97, while a deeper pullback could drag it to the next key support level at $258.90.

The controversy of the 51% Mining attack led by Qubic

Last weekend, the decentralized project Qubic announced through its founder Sergey Ivancheglo that it had captured 51% of the Monero mining share. Reactions were swift from all sides. Supporters of XMR termed it an economic attack and warned that Qubic's incentives for miners come at a high cost—their privacy. Many also believe this is a coordinated attempt to undermine the integrity of the network, sparking a broader debate about decentralization and trust in crypto mining. If the controversy is not resolved quickly, the consequences could severely impact the price of XMR, making it increasingly difficult for it to break through the $400 mark.

Community Counterattack and the Decline of Qubic's hashrate:

This is basically the response of the Monero community after IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo announced that his Qubic mining pool aims to take over more than half of the hashrate of the privacy coin. After Qubic controlled 40% of the decentralized mining matrix (up from only 2% in May), the Monero community united in July to block Qubic's acquisition. Unstoppable Wallet analyst Dan Dadybayo told DL News: "The Monero community launched a counterattack: by late July 2025, after a coordinated boycott, Qubic's share dropped to 10% to 15%." As of the report, Qubic's hashrate was below 14%.

Promotional hype and true intentions:

As for why Qubic is trying a hash grabbing strategy, some respondents stated that the whole event is merely a publicity stunt. Seth, the anonymous vice president of the crypto wallet platform Cake Wallet, told DL News that Qubic is trying to create a "hype" for its "meaningless cryptocurrency." Qubic tokens have surged over 70% in the past two weeks, while Monero has dropped 5% during the same period. Seth stated that Qubic's business model relies on selling the Monero it mines, which means that harmful attacks on the blockchain do not align with its best interests. Ivancheglo stated that this move is not malicious, as the team is trying to demonstrate its capabilities while also raising awareness about the risks of a 51% hashrate takeover. Ivancheglo wrote on X: "This is very important, as one day we may all face malicious attacks."

Threat of 51% Attack and Security Budget of XMR

Malicious actors who launch a 51% hashrate attack typically do so to extract value from the blockchain network. By controlling more than half of the blockchain's hashing power, bad actors can reorder transactions to achieve double spending of cryptocurrencies. Blockchains such as Firo, Ethereum Classic, and Bitcoin Gold have suffered from such attacks in the past, resulting in millions of dollars in losses.

Dadybayo stated that Monero shares a common risk factor with these blockchains: a weak security budget. The security budget of a blockchain is the amount of value paid to miners or validators to protect the network's security, which can take the form of block subsidies, staking rewards, and transaction fees. Dadybayo believes that Monero's security budget is too weak, enough to encourage hashrate grabbing attempts. However, some analysts do not consider Qubic a threat in this regard. Luke Parker, the chief developer of the decentralized exchange Serai, told DL News: "They have not yet demonstrated the ability to control consensus, [and] their hashrate is highly volatile, and even at peak times, it must roughly double and sustain to launch a 51% attack on Monero."

Seth expressed that he is "extremely skeptical" about whether Qubic would implement a 51% attack aimed at reducing people's trust in Monero. However, Dadybayo stated that such a soft attack could also have devastating consequences. Dadybayo believes that even without a double-spend attack, real users would lose confidence in the blockchain, while also adding that a reputation collapse is as bad as a technical collapse.

XMR Price Prediction: Trapped in Downtrend

(Source: Trading View)

After zooming in on the 4-hour chart, CCN noticed that the price of XMR has been in a descending channel. Therefore, the cryptocurrency is struggling to break through the volatility high of $347.46. In addition, the momentum oscillator (AO) reading has dropped into negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum surrounding the alts.

Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has also fallen below the zero signal line, indicating rising selling pressure. If this situation continues, the price of XMR may fall below the support level of $315.15. If this occurs, the next target for the token may be a pullback to $302.19. However, if buying pressure increases, XMR may break through the upper trend line of the descending channel. If this happens, the price could surge to $345.56, or even reach as high as $391.05.

Conclusion:

Monero is at a critical moment, as the controversy over Qubic's Mining attack adds uncertainty to its price trend. Although the community has successfully countered this, the incident highlights once again the potential threat of a 51% attack on decentralized financial projects. The price trend of XMR is still influenced by multiple factors, and investors should closely monitor market dynamics.