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Goldman Sachs: Expects the Trump administration to raise the basic tariff rate to 15%.
Jin10 data reported on July 23, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle expects that the base "equivalent" tariff rate in the U.S. will be raised from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%—this move could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the initial observations of the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that the tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. He added that the tariffs will reduce this year's GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027.
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