Crypto Assets Market Weekly Review and Outlook

Market Performance of BTC and ETH

This week, the Crypto Assets market experienced significant volatility. Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday due to a decline in the global market, but the price rebounded as market sentiment improved after the release of macro data on Tuesday. Ethereum also suffered a heavy blow on Monday, with a series of liquidation events further exacerbating the decline. Although it subsequently recovered somewhat, the extent was relatively limited.

Important Event Review

1. The global market slump raises concerns.

At the beginning of the week, the Japanese stock market plummeted and triggered a circuit breaker, followed by a decline across all three major US stock indices. The market reacted strongly to the disappointing US employment data, raising concerns about an economic recession, which led to risk-averse actions and panic selling. However, as other macroeconomic data was gradually released, the market began to stabilize and rebound.

2. The U.S. economic data is improving.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. reached 51.4 in July, exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 in early August. These data somewhat alleviated market concerns about an economic recession, driving the market to gradually recover.

3. Geopolitical tensions

Last week, after Hamas leaders were attacked in Iran, Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel. Although no actual action has been taken yet, the uncertainty in the Middle East has increased market pressure.

4. The Democratic Party candidate in the United States has been determined.

After Biden announced that he would not run for re-election, the Democratic Party nominated current Vice President Harris as the presidential candidate. Harris has had preliminary contacts with executives in the Crypto Assets industry, and although she has not made a clear statement, the market has new expectations for the Democratic Party's future Crypto Assets policy.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week's Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9.2%, indicating an extreme fear area. On Monday, a sharp decline in the global market caused Altcoins to generally fall over 20%. Subsequently, there was a rebound along with the market, but most tokens rebounded less than the market, reflecting that investors remain cautious.

The top five tokens on the gainers list belong to different sectors such as DEX, Depin, L1s, wallets, and privacy, without showing a clear concentration characteristic. Although Meme coins experienced significant declines at the beginning of the week, their subsequent rebound strength surpassed that of other sectors. However, the rapid update and iteration of Meme themes also expose their instability, which may affect the confidence of long-term investors.

In terms of social media popularity, L1 projects are receiving a lot of attention, but their price fluctuations vary. Some tokens rebound less strongly than the market, which may reflect weaker funding strength.

According to weekly return statistics, the Payment sector performed the best, while the RWA sector performed the worst. XRP's victory in the lawsuit against the SEC is the main reason for the outstanding performance of the Payment sector. The expectations of an economic recession in the United States have affected the performance of the RWA sector.

Important Events Next Week

• August 13: FireNow Asia Web 3.0 Institutional Summit
• August 14: US July CPI year-on-year announcement; Istanbul Blockchain Week 2024
• August 15: US July Retail Sales Month-on-Month Released
• August 16: OnChain Summit; ETHShenzhen 2024 Summit and Hackathon

Market Outlook

1. Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating widely before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Investors should remain cautious but can pay attention to rebound opportunities.

2. The funds for the Ethereum spot ETF continue to flow in, and there may be a bottom-fishing opportunity in the short term, but long-term risks still exist. It is expected to fluctuate in sync with Bitcoin, and investors should be cautious about being bullish.

3. Altcoins are expected to rebound, but the increase may be limited. Investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor market changes.