Web3 is repeating the old path of the Internet

The development trajectory of Web3 is surprisingly similar to that of the Internet. From its initial concept-driven phase to the current structural sedimentation, Web3 seems to be retracing the path once taken by the Internet, just in a different form.

Four Stages of Internet Development

1. Narrative-driven phase ( 2010 years ago )

This is an era defined by concepts and trends. "Internet Plus" has become a universal key; as long as these three words are attached, it can attract capital attention. Entrepreneurs first create concepts and then make products, while investors chase after imaginative potential rather than actual returns.

2. Burn Money Expansion Phase ( 2010-2018 )

From the ride-hailing war to the shared bicycle melee, the entire industry has fallen into competition driven by subsidies to seize market share. Whoever can burn through another round of financing can continue to expand. This is an era where "capturing users" is the top priority, while experience and efficiency take a back seat.

3. Fine Operation Stage ( 2018-2022 )

As user growth slows down, the industry begins to focus on how to retain users and achieve profitability. A number of truly successful projects have emerged, completing a business loop through real demand scenarios. Whether it can convert growth into structural retention has become the key to determining the life and death of projects.

4. Ecological Shaping Stage ( Since 2023 )

Competition among platforms is shifting towards a contest of ecological capabilities. Growth no longer relies on new users but on structural compounding brought about by the system's self-operation. Although the landscape is becoming more solidified, there is still the possibility of new players, like ByteDance, achieving a leapfrog through technological innovation.

Development Stages of Web3

1. Concept-Driven Stage

The early days of Web3 relied on the low-threshold fundraising method of "issuing tokens" to kickstart quickly. As long as there is a white paper, token model, and smart contract, a project can swiftly complete the closed loop from "idea" to "funding." The ICO market exploded in 2017-2018, becoming a hallmark of this phase.

2. Cash Burning Expansion Stage

Uniswap's airdrop has opened up a new landscape. The project team has realized that tokens can be exchanged for user loyalty and traffic. Airdrops have transformed from an option into a standard feature, and many projects have fallen into the illusion of "incentive-driven" growth.

3. Business Verification Stage

The project team began to consider real use cases and user needs. Projects built around actual needs, such as exchange products, gradually establish a foothold through the positive cycle of vertical scenarios.

4. Structural Sedimentation Period

Projects like Binance have already formed a complete ecosystem. The industry's focus has shifted from competing for users to building a complete system structure. However, there is still the possibility of new projects breaking through in structural gaps through technological innovation, similar to ByteDance.

Future Outlook

The true potential of Web3 may lie in reconstructing usage paths, lowering collaboration thresholds, and giving rise to a batch of truly functional products and systems. In the future, there may be infrastructure built for the AI-native era, or applications that leverage AI to break through existing user barriers.