Fed July Interest Rate Decision Highlights: Comparison of FOMC Language, Powell's Term and Fed Independence

On July 31, the highlights of the Fed's July interest rate decision are as follows: FOMC statement: 1. Voting ratio: The interest rate decision may pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with governors Bowman and Waller likely voting against. 2. Wording comparison: There may be no substantial changes, or a simplification of the uncertainty in the economic outlook, acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year. 3. Balance sheet reduction scale: It is highly probable that it will remain unchanged (reducing $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS each month). Powell's press conference: 1. Interest rate outlook: How to interpret the 'two rate cuts' expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will there be clues for a rate cut in September? 2. Economic data: Likely to emphasize the importance of data, continuing the communication style of data dependence and decision-making by meeting. 3. Inflation and tariffs: May remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if emphasizing the upward risks of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected. 4. Term and independence: In the face of frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly probable that there will be no substantial response, likely reiterating the commitment to independence and professionalism during the term. ( Jin10 )