Altcoin ETF application frenzy is coming, is a new round of speculation about to begin?

Recently, despite Trump's high-profile announcement of the cryptocurrency strategic reserve, the market's reaction has been tepid. However, this has not hindered the proactive actions of traditional financial institutions. Following the confirmation by regulators of several large U.S. institutions applying for LTC, DOGE, SOL, and XRP ETFs in February of this year, favorable policies and regulatory easing have further propelled the progress of a series of alts ETFs this week.

Latest altcoins applying for ETFs

The application process for a US ETF typically takes 6-8 months, depending on the review progress of the regulatory authorities. Below are some recent altcoins that have applied for an ETF and their market performance over the past 30 days, sorted by application date:

ADA (Cardano)

On February 25, the regulatory agency confirmed that it has accepted the listing application for a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF submitted by a certain exchange on behalf of an asset management company. The application was submitted on February 10 and will be custodied by a certain custody company, with another financial institution responsible for asset services and administrative management.

On March 2, Trump mentioned ADA on social media as part of the cryptocurrency strategic reserve, and on that day, the price of ADA surged over 70%.

DOT (Polkadot)

On February 25, a certain exchange submitted an application document for a DOT ETF for a certain asset management company.

HBAR (Hedera)

On February 24 and March 4, a certain exchange submitted application documents for the HBAR ETF of two different companies.

Hedera is often seen as a dark horse in the cryptocurrency market. The market's expectations for Hedera mainly stem from the news that a spot HBAR ETF may be launched. A certain fund company has submitted an application for a physical staking product to a European exchange, while another company has also submitted an application for a domestic spot HBAR ETF in the United States, further heightening market expectations. Investors are closely watching the regulatory dynamics in the post-election environment.

AXL (Axelar)

On March 6, a certain company submitted application documents for its AXL ETF.

In addition, a former legal chief of a well-known trading platform has joined Axelar's new advisory board, which is dedicated to regulatory coordination and institutional adoption.

An investment company has launched the AXL (Axelar) trust fund, which is the first investment trust to provide investment in a universal blockchain interoperability protocol. This trust fund will offer institutional investors investment opportunities in blockchain interconnectivity technology, connecting multiple Web3 ecosystems.

APT (Aptos)

On March 6th, an asset management company officially submitted an application to the regulatory authorities to register the potentially launched Aptos ETF, marking the first step towards launching the Aptos ETF in the U.S. market.

Aptos is seeking to launch an ETF listed in the United States in collaboration with major asset management companies, making Aptos one of the few crypto protocols globally to achieve this milestone.

Prior to this, the company launched the Aptos Staking ETP on the Swiss Stock Exchange in November 2024, staking Aptos coins.

Ethereum ETF Performance

Since the Ethereum ETF was officially launched in the U.S. capital markets on July 23 of last year, it has seen a net inflow of $2.76 billion, equivalent to nearly 1% of the total Ethereum supply being purchased by Wall Street. However, the price of Ethereum has dropped from around $3,200 at launch to approximately $2,300 currently.

On one hand, this is because a certain asset management company continues to sell Ethereum ETFs, becoming the largest seller in the market, which hinders the rise of Ethereum; on the other hand, Ethereum is more severely affected by large holders selling compared to Bitcoin, and is still digesting potential selling pressure.

However, entities related to Trump are continuously increasing their holdings of Ethereum. The net inflow of ETFs and the ongoing purchases by Trump-related institutions reflect a positive attitude among long-term investors towards Ethereum in an increasingly open market environment.

However, this does not mean that if the aforementioned altcoin ETF is approved in 2025, these tokens will show a significant upward trend. Although the ETF will become a window for traditional capital inflow, the market performance still needs to consider multiple factors comprehensively.

The New Era of Crypto ETFs Under Trump's Administration

Looking at the development history of crypto ETFs, it is not difficult to see the significant benefits for the entire market after Trump returns to the White House. An analyst pointed out that before Trump won the election, the approval probability for all assets except Litecoin was below 5%. It is expected that as applications enter the approval process and the decision deadline for regulatory agencies approaches, the approval probability for cryptocurrency ETFs will continue to rise.

###'s impact on the crypto market

Analysts expect regulators to make a decision on the proposed alts ETF in October this year. If the alts ETF is approved consecutively, future positive factors are likely to continue attracting more conservative and institutional investors, thereby changing the investor structure of the market. The crypto market may experience increased liquidity, price rises, and changes in the investor structure under this policy environment. The approval of more ETF products will also bring more funds to the crypto market, enhancing market liquidity and thus reducing price volatility.

Moreover, due to the existence of regulatory arbitrage, the ETFs launched in the United States may directly inspire imitation from other countries and regions. This imitation could drive the global adoption of cryptocurrencies to varying degrees, especially in regions with more relaxed regulations, where the adoption of cryptocurrencies is expected to witness more rapid growth. The convergence of policies worldwide not only effectively reduces the compliance costs of cross-border transactions but also further alleviates investors' concerns about legal risks, thereby promoting greater participation from institutions and individuals. This trend may accelerate the transition of cryptocurrencies from marginal assets to mainstream financial instruments, continuously enhancing their status in the global economy.

With the Trump administration further supporting the cryptocurrency industry, various states in the U.S. are gradually introducing "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislation. Coupled with the Republican control of both the House and Senate, Congress may have the opportunity to pass cryptocurrency-related bills. Once legislation is passed, cryptocurrencies may be expected to become a new asset class that is neither classified as securities nor commodities, which would have epoch-making significance for the crypto market.

potential ETF applicants

As the Trump administration continues to loosen regulations on cryptocurrency, 2025 may see a peak in applications for alts ETFs. Some institutions have predicted that the surge in demand for cryptocurrency ETFs will cause their total assets in North America to surpass those of precious metals ETFs, making them the third largest asset class in the rapidly growing $15 trillion ETF industry, only behind stocks and bonds.

Especially for altcoins that are highly relevant to the US market, they are more likely to be favored. For example, ONDO, as a representative in the RWA track that anchors real assets like US Treasury bonds, may be the first to obtain approval for ETF linked to tokenized government bonds, and even become a core target for traditional institutions to allocate crypto assets. If a certain bill is passed within the year, establishing the principle of "decentralized protocol exemption from securities law," mainstream DeFi tokens in the US such as UNI, MKR, and AAVE may accelerate their integration into the traditional financial system.