Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Selective Bull Run is Brewing

1. The macro turning point has arrived: The policy environment has shifted from resistance to momentum.

In the third quarter of 2025, the macro environment of the crypto market underwent a fundamental transformation. The Federal Reserve ended its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returned to a stimulative track, and the global regulatory framework became more inclusive. These three factors jointly propelled the crypto market into a structural revaluation.

In terms of monetary policy, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates within 2025. The pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy. This expectation opens up upward space for the valuation of risk assets, especially digital assets.

Fiscal policy is expanding on a large scale. Fiscal stimulus measures represented by the "Great American Plan" have released significant capital effects, indirectly boosting demand for digital assets. The more aggressive bond issuance strategy by the U.S. Treasury has also sent a signal of "no fear of debt expansion."

The regulatory attitude has undergone a qualitative change. The SEC's approval of the Ethereum staking ETF marks that yield-bearing digital assets can enter the traditional financial system. The advancement of the Solana ETF further opens up historical opportunities for institutional adoption. The SEC is working to establish a unified token ETF approval standard, intending to create a replicable compliant financial product channel.

The regulatory race in the Asia-Pacific region is also heating up. Financial centers like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE are vying to establish stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. This indicates that stablecoins will become a part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market is recovering. The S&P 500 has reached a new high, tech stocks and emerging assets are rebounding, and the IPO market is warming up, indicating that risk capital is flowing back. Capital is beginning to reassess blockchain, crypto finance, and on-chain structured yield assets.

Under the dual drive of policy and market, a new bull run is brewing. This is not driven by sentiment, but a process of value reassessment driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a more gentle yet powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions and Enterprises Lead the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, users focused on speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulation chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "lock-up" process. The cumulative purchase of Bitcoin by listed companies has exceeded the net buying of ETFs during the same period. Companies view Bitcoin as a strategic cash substitute rather than a short-term allocation tool. Compared to ETFs, enterprises have more flexibility and voting rights in directly purchasing spot Bitcoin, and the holding is more resilient.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the Ethereum staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The expectations for the Solana ETF further expand the imagination. Grayscale's crypto fund has applied to convert into an ETF format, and the barriers between traditional funds and blockchain asset management mechanisms are being broken down.

Companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market. Enterprises such as Bitmine and DeFi Development are significantly increasing their holdings of ETH and acquiring Solana ecosystem projects, which represents their active involvement in building a new generation of encryption financial ecosystem. This capital injection, characterized by industrial mergers and acquisitions, aims to secure rights to core assets of new financial infrastructure.

Traditional finance is also actively laying out derivatives and on-chain liquidity. Crypto futures trading on CME is active, with hedge funds, structured product providers, and others continuously entering the market. These players operate based on volatility arbitrage and quantitative models, which will enhance the liquidity density and depth of the market.

The decreasing activity of retail investors and short-term players has also reinforced the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decline, and the activity of early whale wallets has decreased, indicating that the market is currently in a "holding and sedimentation period."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly being realized. From JPMorgan Chase, Fidelity to Robinhood and PayPal, all are expanding their capabilities in trading, staking, lending, and payments of encryption assets. This enables encryption assets to truly achieve "availability within the fiat currency system", and also provides them with richer financial attributes.

This round of structural turnover is essentially a deepening of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market are no longer the "quick-money crowd" driven by emotions, but institutions and enterprises with clear medium to long-term strategic planning and allocation logic. A more solid and lasting institutional bull run is brewing.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: From General Surge to "Selective Bull Run"

The "altcoin season" of 2025 is entering a new phase: the broad market rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

The chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has made a strong rebound for the first time, with whale addresses accumulating a large amount of ETH in the short term, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently, indicating that institutional funds are beginning to reprice primary assets such as Ethereum. Retail sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low-interference" environment for the next round of market trends.

The ETF application has become the anchor point of the new round of thematic structure. In particular, the spot ETF for Solana is seen as the next "market consensus event." From the launch of the Ethereum staking ETF to whether the staking rewards on the Solana chain will be included in the ETF dividend structure, investors have begun to strategize around staking assets. The performance of these assets will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real income distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation," presenting a differentiated evolution.

DeFi is also an important arena in this round of "selective bull run". Users are shifting from "points airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi", with protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators for assessing asset value. Liquidity providers place greater emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structure.

Capital choices are becoming more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have also become key factors determining the direction of funds. Infrastructure and composable protocols built around public chains have become the new valuation core.

Although Meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. In its place is the rise of the "platform rotation trading" strategy. Capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide sustainable returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

The core of this round of the imitation season lies in "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, to the simplification of cross-chain UX, and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull, but rather an upgrade of the bull.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local explosions". From long-term allocation in Bitcoin, to thematic trading of Solana ETFs, and then to rotation strategies of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA vaults, it is necessary to build an asset allocation framework that is hierarchical and adaptable.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows continue, corporate treasuries are increasing their holdings, and the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect. Corporate buying has become the largest variable in the market, and the "structural accumulation" characteristic of ETFs has altered the traditional price trajectory of the halving cycle.

Solana is the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and others have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is expected to be included in the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital allocation. This narrative will drive the governance tokens of SOL spot and its staking ecosystem.

DeFi portfolios are still worth reconstructing. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Projects like SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, and FLUID can be configured with equal weight allocations to capture relative returns from individual projects. Approach it with a medium-term allocation mindset to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, limiting it to within 5% of the total net asset value. Set clear stop-loss mechanisms, take-profit rules, and position limits. For contract targets launched by Binance and others, a "quick in and out" strategy framework should be established.

Another key in the third quarter is to seize the timing of event-driven layout. Trump's support for crypto mining and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman have sparked expectations of accelerated policy games. The passage of the "Big American Law", Robinhood's entry into Arbitrum Orbit with L2, and Circle's application for a U.S. license all indicate a rapidly changing regulatory environment. It is expected that from mid-August to early September, there will be a "policy + capital resonance" market.

Attention should be paid to the momentum of the structural substitution theme. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and the promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chain" and RWA integration. $H(Humanity Protocol) and projects like $SAHARA(AI+DePIN fusion) could become the "explosive points" in the marginal sectors.

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flooding" betting mindset and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchoring on the core and taking events as wings." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators, with each part corresponding to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment where ETF capital is continuously expanding, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narrative + real returns."

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is already on the way.

The key turning point of the current market trend, although the market has not yet returned to "mass frenzy", a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real profits is brewing. The story has already been written, waiting for a few who understand it to enter.

Bitcoin is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises, serving as a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of U.S. ETFs has changed the previous "miner-exchange-retail" chip structure, building an underlying capital reservoir. In the future, the biggest influence on Bitcoin's price will come from institutional buying records, the allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of the valuation system for risk assets based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, re-staking bonds, and other representations of crypto assets are transforming from "anarchic capital experiments" into "predictable institutional assets." This is a pricing revolution that transcends asset boundaries.

The altcoin season has changed. The next market cycle will be more deeply tied to three main anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly possess RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is an elite selection of "altcoins," a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

Ordinary investors face both challenges and opportunities. When the market appears sluggish, it is the golden period for large funds to quietly complete their positions. The key is to stand on the right structure and grasp the profits of the main upward wave through the reconstruction of position structure.

The third quarter of 2025 will be the prelude to this wealth migration. The next round