President Trump’s comprehensive trade policy of imposing high tariffs on most goods entering the United States will impose a heavy burden on consumers through rising prices. However, economic data from recent months indicates that overall inflation remains relatively mild.

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Trump and his administration members are touting positive economic reports as a sign that tariffs are working. But growing concerns indicate that prices are rising, and this is just the beginning.
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The data shows that the seemingly mild overall inflation figures do not reflect the full picture. Private sector and federal data indicate that prices for goods—especially categories affected by tariffs—have begun to rise.
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The consumer price index in May showed that prices for several tariff-sensitive categories experienced a pump:
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Appliance prices rose by 0.8% in both April and May, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly four years.
Toy prices have risen for the second consecutive month, jumping 1.3% (holding steady at a four-year high).
The prices of household goods, tools, and sports equipment are rising rapidly, while in the years following the pandemic, the prices of these goods had fallen.
DataWeave's analysis of 200,000 products across 13 major e-commerce platforms in the United States shows that prices have risen since January:
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The prices of home and furniture have accelerated in the past five months: an increase of 1.1% in February, 2.1% in March, 2.8% in April, 3.7% in May, and 4.7% in June.
The toys show a similar trajectory, but with a smaller amplitude: the price in June rose 3.8% compared to January.
The prices of clothing and footwear remained relatively stable from February to May, but rose slightly in June, up 1.7% compared to January.
Some retailers have seen larger price rises: for example, toy prices at Walmart and Target have risen by 7.4% and 6.1% respectively since January, while the average increase is 3.8%. Karthik Betadapally, co-founder and CEO of DataWeave, stated in an interview with CNN: "The increase is definitely higher than in previous years."
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BetaDapra expects a broader price rise in the coming months as the effects of tariffs transmit through the supply chain. Given consumers' resistance to price increases, he also anticipates an increase in "shrinkflation" (reducing package sizes) and the phenomenon of private label expansion.

Wells Fargo pointed out that the June CPI, to be released next week, could become a "turning point," as the significantly increased effective tax rate will have a greater impact on overall inflation, especially in the core commodity categories excluding energy and food.
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