Inflation data slows, crypto market mixed feelings

The latest published US inflation data for May shows a milder trend that exceeded expectations, bringing some positive news for the risk asset market. The data indicates that the unadjusted Consumer Price Index for May rose by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the market's general expectation of 2.5%; month-on-month, it only increased by 0.1%, also below the expected 0.2%.

The core CPI data, excluding food and energy prices, also shows a similar slowdown trend. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI increased only 0.1% month-on-month, far below the market expectation of 0.3%.

After this data was released, the crypto market showed a trend of initially rising and then falling. A well-known cryptocurrency approached $110,000 at one point, while another mainstream cryptocurrency rose by 3% to $2,834, and XRP increased by 1.8% to $2.32. In the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has remained around $3.4 trillion. According to statistics from a certain data platform, as of the time of writing, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $300 million, with about $100 million in liquidation for a certain mainstream cryptocurrency and approximately $37 million for another well-known cryptocurrency.

It is noteworthy that while the price of a certain well-known cryptocurrency rose and then fell, on-chain data also observed an increase in activities by large holders. On June 11, an on-chain tracking platform found that a large amount of this cryptocurrency flowed into a certain American trading platform. The data showed that within just about two hours, multiple anonymous large holders transferred over 3,165 units of this cryptocurrency (worth over $347 million) to the platform through several transactions.

The largest transaction involved 738 coins, with several other transactions also being large anonymous wallet transfers. Particularly noteworthy is the transfer of 510 coins (worth about $56.1 million) from a well-known encryption trading company to the institutional account of the trading platform, which is usually regarded as a signal that large holders may be attempting to sell their tokens. Although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed, they could also be an attempt by large holders to rebalance their portfolios. However, considering the large volume of these transfers, their high frequency, and the involvement of well-known institutions, it is very likely that this is an action by large participants, especially institutions.

Affected by the activities of these large holders, a well-known cryptocurrency fell below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day, stabilizing around $108,677 at the time of publication.

From a technical perspective, the current funding rate of the crypto market contract is very stable or relatively low. This usually indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors purchasing the spot, rather than by high-leverage contract trading. With high-leverage positions not being the mainstream in the market, the risk of large-scale sell-offs and sharp declines is low, thus the possibility of prices continuing to rise is relatively high.

From the daily chart, the cryptocurrency opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, priced around 110,375 points. After opening, it fluctuated around this price for about 180 minutes, then began to slowly decline, reaching an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, the price quickly surged, ultimately closing at around 110,455 points. The day formed a bullish doji candlestick with a longer lower shadow, with a gain of about 1.02%.

According to the daily trading channel model monitoring, this cryptocurrency is currently operating above the red and green protection channels, indicating that the mid-term trend remains strong. The sentiment indicator is also slowly recovering with the rise in price, suggesting that market confidence is returning.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart perspective, the trading model monitoring shows that the short-term price is running above the white bullish and bearish line, and the sentiment indicator is in a high zone, indicating that a top divergence pattern is about to form. This means that the probability of increased market volatility in the short term is high, and there may be a retracement to the 108,720 point (intraday low), so it is important to observe whether this low will be broken.

Comprehensive analysis suggests that, based on the 1-hour candlestick data, multiple indicators are at high levels, increasing the probability of intraday fluctuations. It is crucial to observe whether the 108,720 point will be breached. According to the daily candlestick analysis, this encryption currency is operating within a red and green protection channel, and in the medium term, long positions can continue to be held.