Bitcoin above $120,000: macroeconomic factors, traders' goals, and kismet of altcoins

Bitcoin has surpassed the mark of $123,000, leaving another historical maximum behind and prompting investors to reconsider their boldest predictions. The third week of July began with a sensation — the leading cryptocurrency has firmly established itself above $120,000 per coin for the first time and then confidently moved towards new heights.

1-week chart BTC/USDT. Source: cryptocurrency screener Cryptovizor

The weekly candle recorded a rise of $10,000, which looks impressive in dollar terms. However, looking at the percentage figures, July's dynamics turn out to be quite standard — Bitcoin gained just under 14%, which is fairly typical for this month.

Monthly yield of Bitcoin. Source: CoinGlass

Where to go next: traders' opinions diverge

After two months of consolidation, an active price formation process has begun, but analysts are already wondering - how much fuel is left in the tank for Bitcoin? Whale Alan (Keith Alan), co-founder of the resource Material Indicators, pointed to the completion of a large "cup and handle" formation that developed over 44 months. According to him, the price is just 2% away from the target he set back in May 2024.

1-week chart BTC/USD. Analytics: Kit Alan

"Much has changed since then, and Bitcoin occupies a completely different position as a macroeconomic asset. Therefore, I believe the price will go higher before we reach the peak of the cycle," noted the analyst.

Popular trader BitQuant still maintains a target of $145,000. His colleague Cas Abbe (Cas Abbe) is even more optimistic: "Bitcoin will reach $135,000 in the third quarter. It needed a strong close above $107,700, and that happened last week. After that, Bitcoin added $10,000 in just a week and still shows no signs of exhaustion."

Inflation Week and the Problems of the Fed

The upcoming week will be key for inflation data in the USA — June consumer price index figures (CPI will be released on Tuesday, July 15, at 15:30 MSK) and producer price index (PPI on Wednesday, July 16, at 15:30 MSK). With two months to go before the next FOMC meeting on interest rates, inflation data carry special weight for participants.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) has come under increasing pressure from President Trump. "I call him 'Too Late' — he is always late," Trump told reporters on July 13, referring to the pace of the Fed's rate cuts. "I hope he resigns because he is very bad for the country."

According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, participants still believe that rates will not decrease before September.

Debt crisis as a growth catalyst

Behind the debates about inflation lies a more serious macroeconomic threat to the U.S. — a growing debt crisis, which analysts call the main driver of Bitcoin's superior performance compared to other assets this month. The U.S. deficit is rapidly increasing — the May figure of $316 billion became the third largest monthly deficit in history.

Despite all the talks about trade tariffs and cutting expenses, the USA continues to plunge into a debt pit, as evidenced by the record figure of the national debt.

The analytical service The Kobeissi Letter stated bluntly: "This is abnormal. We have reached a point where Bitcoin is literally moving in a STRAIGHT line upward. Rates are rising, the dollar has fallen by 11% over 6 months, and the cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by $1 trillion in 3 months. What is happening? Bitcoin has entered 'defensive asset mode'."

The impact of macroeconomic factors on the price of Bitcoin. Source: The Kobeissi

Experts have identified two key inflection points for Bitcoin and the weakening of the dollar: the April tariff delay and the passage of Trump's "big beautiful bill" this month.

The battle for dominance is intensifying

Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market is changing direction — and along with it, hopes are rising that altcoins will take advantage of the freed-up space. After reaching 66% at the end of June, Bitcoin's dominance fell below 65%, briefly touching a monthly low.

1-week chart of Bitcoin dominance

Benjamin Cowen (Benjamin Cowen), the founder of the analytical resource Into The Cryptoverse, predicts: "I know that Bitcoin's dominance has fallen, but I believe that by the end of October it will be higher (similarly to 2017, 2019, 2023, 2024 years)."

Trader Rekt Capital sees early signs of a reversal: "Bitcoin's dominance has fallen by only 2.5%, while many altcoins are showing strong results. That's more than enough. One can only imagine what will happen when Bitcoin's dominance finally experiences a double-digit decline."

The largest altcoin Ethereum has already shown impressive results, gaining nearly 20% in seven days and rising above $3,000 for the first time since February.

1-week chart ETH/USDT. Source: cryptocurrency screener Cryptovizor

The current situation shows how macroeconomic factors continue to determine the trajectory of Bitcoin. The debt issues in the US and the weakening dollar create perfect conditions for the further growth of the main cryptocurrency, while the decrease in its market dominance may signal the start of the altcoin season.

hashtelegraph.com