BTC weekly rise exceeds 10%, nearly 7 billion USD long term funds get on board

This week, the price of BTC rose from $85177.33 to $93780.57, with a weekly rise of 10.10% and a fluctuation of 12.73%, achieving a rebound for three consecutive weeks, while trading volume has increased. After a strong breakthrough of the 120-day moving average on Monday, it maintained above that average for the entire week, showing strong bullish sentiment.

Currently, the "counter-tariff war" has entered the "negotiation" stage of its second phase. The White House continues to release positive signals, while the other side remains ambiguous, indicating that the outcome of the negotiations is still unclear.

Trump made it clear that he would not remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which eased market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a stabilization and rebound in the stock, bond, and currency markets.

Federal Reserve officials are releasing positive signals to the outside world. Cleveland Fed President and 2026 FOMC voter Loretta Mester stated that the Fed has the ability to act quickly when circumstances change. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also pointed out that if the labor market deteriorates significantly, it may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates faster and more aggressively.

Recent performances in global markets, especially the U.S. financial markets, have fully demonstrated the irrationality of the "tariff war" and its immense impact on the global economy. The compromise measures taken by the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve to respond to the triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and currencies confirm that the market will continue to operate along a rational path in the medium to long term.

However, it is important to note that the market rebound is mainly due to a temporary alleviation of concerns regarding a "reciprocal tariff war" potentially triggering a market collapse and economic recession. The future market trend will depend on whether the "reciprocal tariff war" can be resolved in a timely manner, and whether the U.S. economy is truly entering a recession. Based on this judgment, the disclosure of Q1 earnings reports for U.S. stocks is particularly important.

Policy, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

The U.S. side indicated that the reciprocal tariff war is making good progress, especially the negotiations with China are also actively ongoing. Trump even stated that a mutually satisfactory agreement can certainly be reached. However, the Chinese side directly pointed out that no negotiations have been conducted between the two sides.

Currently, negotiations with Japan and South Korea are underway, and the probability of these two countries reaching terms favorable to the United States is relatively high, and their "concessions" will also set an example for other countries.

However, there are no signs that the US-China negotiations have entered the substantive consultation stage. Therefore, the "reciprocal tariff war" phase two has just begun, and there is still a distance to significant progress. This limits the time and space for market rebound, making it difficult to be optimistic in the short term.

Powell's speech this week mainly focused on the inflation and economic uncertainty brought about by tariff policies, setting the tone for the upcoming May interest rate meeting, and reaffirming the independence of the Federal Reserve. He insists on a data-driven policy, maintaining stable interest rates and will not succumb to political pressure to cut rates, but he hinted that if there are significant changes in inflation or employment data, the policy may be adjusted. Other Federal Reserve officials' speeches emphasized a "dovish" stance, indicating the possibility of a rate cut in June.

As of the weekend, CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is 62.7%. With the market rebounding, this probability has significantly decreased compared to the past two weeks.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on April 23 indicates that 8 out of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported "little noticeable change" in economic activity, with overall economic growth slowing. Only a few districts reported slight growth, while some reflected a deterioration in economic outlook. Businesses reacted strongly to tariff policies, with inflation expectations rising to 3.5% in several districts by 2025. Manufacturing activity continued to contract, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 48.5. Consumer spending grew moderately, but high prices and tariff expectations began to weaken consumer confidence. Retailers reported inventory backlogs, particularly for imported goods, with sales growth falling short of expectations. Employment levels remained generally stable, but hiring activity weakened, and some districts reported increased layoffs, especially in retail and manufacturing. Wage growth has slowed but is still above pre-pandemic levels, and issues with labor shortages in the tech industry and high-skilled positions persist.

The content of the brown book shows that the negative impact of tariffs is becoming evident, but the extent is still unclear.

With the dovish statements from Trump and the Federal Reserve, the extreme panic in the market has eased. The dollar index rebounded to stabilize at 99.613 after dipping to 97.991. The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 1.42% to 3.7560%, while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 2% to a neutral zone of 4.245%. Risk assets performed better, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones rebounding by 6.73%, 4.59%, and 2.48% respectively.

Gold rose to $3499.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, but then fell sharply for two days, turning bearish during the week.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off

With a significant price rebound, the on-chain selling scale increased this week, mainly from short-term holders. The total on-chain selling scale for the week rose to 197040.26 coins, with short-term holders accounting for 190568.61 coins and long-term holders for 6471.65 coins. The net outflow from exchanges surged to 62696.12 coins, marking the largest net outflow week since this cycle. This not only alleviates market selling pressure but also demonstrates strong enthusiasm for market accumulation.

Long term holders increased their positions by over 120,000 this week, while another group worth noting is the shark group (addresses holding BTC between 100 and 1,000), which saw an increase of nearly 30,000 in a single week.

Capital Inflow and Outflow

As the Federal Reserve and Washington return to rationality, the inflow of funds into stablecoins and ETF channels has significantly increased this week, totaling nearly $7 billion.

In 7 trading days, 6 trading days recorded net inflows, indicating that long term funds are aggressively getting on board. However, it is important to note that, as the BTC price rebounded to the 95,000 USD level, along with ongoing tariff war conflicts and economic recession concerns, and the most optimistic rate cuts are still a month away, market divergences still exist, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable.

Cycle Indicator

According to the data, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.50, and the market is in a rise continuation phase.