Analysis of Stablecoin Market Data After the USDC Crisis

Recently, USDC has faced a liquidity crisis, leading to fluctuations in the stablecoin market. Although the crisis has been resolved, it has brought about many changes and reflections in the stablecoin market. By analyzing the basic situation of stablecoins and the market data from March 11 to 18, we find the following points:

1. The average market value of fiat stablecoins has risen, while the average market value of crypto-based stablecoins has fallen. This indicates that the market's confidence in fiat stablecoins remains relatively strong, while crypto-based stablecoins are facing greater negative impacts.

2. The current market value of USDC is approximately 47% of USDT. The market value of TUSD has increased by over 54%, the highest growth. The market values of various stablecoins such as USDT, DAI, and LUSD have also seen growth.

3. On March 18, the exchange's stablecoin supply was approximately 21.461 billion USD, a decrease of 11.02% compared to the 11th, showing a rapid outflow trend.

4. The total locked value of 13 major stablecoins in Uniswap v3, Curve, and AAVE v2 dropped from 3.464 billion USD on the 11th to 3.297 billion USD on the 18th, a decline of approximately 4.83%.

On March 11, the total trading volume of stablecoin trading pairs on decentralized exchanges reached $23.17 billion, far exceeding the average daily volume of around $1 billion at the beginning of the month. Transactions between USDC, USDT, and DAI constituted the main liquidity path for stablecoins in decentralized finance during the crisis, reflecting users' confidence in fiat stablecoins.

TUSD market value surged over 54%, the impact of the USDC crisis on other stablecoins varies.

The depegging of USDC has led to significant fluctuations in its value and that of other stablecoins. From the market value changes on March 11, major stablecoins showed a trend of more declines than increases. The market value of USDC dropped by 2.5%, while SUSD, DOLA, MAI, and USTC were affected more severely, with market value declines ranging from 2.8% to 5.0%. Additionally, the market value of 9 stablecoins actually increased, with USDP seeing the largest rise of over 11%.

The market capitalization changes on March 18 largely continued the trend of the 11th. The market capitalization of four stablecoins, USDT, TUSD, DAI, and LUSD, continued to rise, with TUSD increasing the most by over 54%, and USDT also rising by more than 6%. The market capitalization of seven stablecoins, including USDC, BUSD, and MIM, continued to decline, with MIM experiencing the largest drop of over 17%, and USDC also falling by more than 14%.

From the perspective of the average market capitalization changes of different types of stablecoins, the average market capitalization of 6 fiat-backed stablecoins shows an upward trend, reflecting that the market's confidence in fiat-backed stablecoins remains strong. In contrast, the average market capitalization of 9 crypto-backed stablecoins has all declined, indicating that the USDC crisis has a greater impact on this type of stablecoin.

Algorithmic stablecoins have demonstrated a certain level of resilience during this crisis. Although the average market value dropped by 1.26% on March 11, it increased by an average of 2.82% by the 18th, marking the largest gain.

The market value of USDC is less than half of USDT, fiat stablecoins remain mainstream

Currently, there are over 100 stablecoins in the market, with a total market cap of approximately 133.388 billion USD. As of March 18, USDT remains the largest stablecoin, with a market cap of about 76.74 billion USD, followed by USDC, with a market cap of around 36.03 billion USD. Together, they account for 85% of the total market cap of stablecoins. After the crisis, the market cap of USDC is about 47% of that of USDT.

Apart from USDT and USDC, the stablecoins with a market capitalization of over $1 billion include BUSD, DAI, TUSD, and FRAX. Those with a market capitalization of over $100 million include USDP, USDD, GUSD, LUSD, USTC, MIM, and SUSD. Other stablecoins have a market capitalization ranging from $48 million to $88 million.

In terms of type, these main stablecoins can be divided into fiat stablecoins, crypto asset-backed stablecoins, algorithmic stablecoins, and hybrid stablecoins. The highest market capitalization is still held by fiat stablecoins, but the most numerous among high market cap stablecoins are those backed by crypto assets, totaling 9 types.

It is worth noting that besides Ethereum, there are also large market cap stablecoins on other public chains. For example, Tron has become the main chain for USDT, TUSD, USDD, and USDJ. There are also large market cap stablecoins on chains like Optimism, Polygon, and Kava, which has positive implications for the development of decentralized finance across different public chains.

The supply of stablecoins on exchanges has decreased, and purchasing power has fallen to a short-term low.

As of March 18, the exchange's stablecoin supply was approximately $21.461 billion, down 11.02% from the 11th, showing a rapid outflow trend. Interestingly, the stablecoin supply on the exchange increased by 3.49% on the 11th compared to the 10th, possibly related to users exchanging stablecoins on the exchange to hedge against risks.

This crisis has also affected the purchasing power of stablecoins. As of March 18, the stablecoin supply index (SSR) is around 4, near the upper Bollinger Band, having risen about 30% since the 11th. This is related to the rebound in Bitcoin prices, where the SSR shows a slight increase despite a rapid short-term rise in asset prices and an overall decline in the market capitalization of stablecoins, leading to a decrease in actual purchasing power. This adds more uncertainty to the market's return to a bull market.

Decentralized exchange stablecoin trading is active, and deposit and loan interest rates are returning to normal.

During the crisis, the total locked amount of stablecoins in decentralized financial protocols related to stablecoin trading also decreased. The total locked amount of 13 major stablecoins in Uniswap v3, Curve, and AAVE v2 fell from 3.464 billion USD on the 11th to 3.297 billion USD on the 18th, a decline of about 4.83%.

It is worth noting that the locked amount of USDT has significantly increased across these three protocols, while the locked amount of USDC has decreased in both Uniswapv3 and Curve. The locked amounts of various stablecoins such as FRAX, TUSD, and SUSD have all dropped, whereas the locked amounts of fiat stablecoins BUSD and GUSD have risen.

On March 11, the total trading volume of stablecoin trading pairs on decentralized exchanges reached $23.17 billion, far exceeding the average level at the beginning of the month. The trading between USDC, USDT, and DAI constituted the main liquidity path for stablecoins in decentralized finance during the crisis, reflecting users' confidence in fiat stablecoins.

The decoupling of USDC has also had a significant impact on the lending market's deposit and loan interest rates. The interest rate trends of USDC and DAI show a "V" shape, while the interest rate trends of USDT, TUSD, GUSD, and others show an "Λ" shape. Currently, the deposit and loan interest rates in the lending market have returned to the levels at the beginning of the month.

Overall, stablecoins serve as an important bridge between the crypto world and fiat currencies, and parts that are more closely linked to the real world may become vulnerabilities in the system. However, it is precisely because of this connection that regulated USD stablecoins have a stronger ability to resist risks. This is both the reason users maintain confidence in them and the reason regulatory authorities are increasingly focusing on stablecoins.