PUMP — are we taking risks?

Idea for a speculative trade for 1-2 weeks
Why PUMP right now?
Listing and promotion campaign
On July 14, Gate launched both spot and perpetual futures for PUMP and is concurrently distributing tokens in CandyDrop until the end of the week. The new listing + airdrop traditionally boost liquidity and enhance FOMO.
Anomalous trading volumes
The daily turnover has already exceeded half of the capitalization. For altcoins, this is a sign of a "hot market" where speculators are actively taking risks.
Regular buy-back
The team bought back nearly 3 billion PUMP on the market and holds a reserve of funds for new rounds. The reduction in free supply supports the price.
Social noise
Publications by @pumpdotfun and analysts on buybacks are gathering millions of views, fueling interest among retail traders.
Technical Overbought
After the initial spike, the token retraced by ~46% from the peak to the $0.0037–0.0045 range. A pin bar has formed on the daily chart from the support at $0.0033 — a classic point for a bounce up during the post-listing phase.
Trading plan
Position accumulation zone (DCA): $0.0034 – $0.0038
Stop-loss: $0.0030 (end of day)
Goal 1 (TP-1): $0.0052  ≈ +35-40 %
Goal 2 (TP-2): $0.0068  ≈ +75-90 %
Move SL to breakeven after reaching TP-1.
Action plan: split the entry into 2-3 parts, immediately set a stop, set take-profits, regularly monitor the news feed and order book.
Main risks
The sell-off by large holders — the resale of early investors can pull the price below $0.0030.
Market correction - a sharp pullback of Bitcoin will increase pressure on high-risk altcoins.
The decline of the hype cycle - if buy-back or media support weakens, retail interest will quickly evaporate.
The scenario is canceled if the daily close is below $0.0030.