Recent analysis indicates that even with a change in the Federal Reserve chair and a forced drop in the Intrerest Rate, it is difficult to significantly alter the interest expenditure of the U.S. government debt. This conclusion comes from research by Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti and his team.

Research indicates that although some argue that a significant drop in Interest Rates can save huge Interest expenses, the reality may not be so simple. If the rate is forcibly lowered by 3 percentage points, the short-term Treasury bond yields will indeed drop, but the long-term Treasury bond yields may actually rise. This is because the market may be concerned that overly accommodative monetary policy could lead to an increase in inflation.

Specifically, the research team estimates that even with such aggressive drop measures, the U.S. Treasury can only save about $12 billion to $15 billion in Interest expenditures by 2027. This figure is far from the 'over $1 trillion' savings claimed by some previously.

This analysis highlights the complexity of monetary policy and that its impact on national finances is not a simple linear relationship. It reminds us that when formulating and evaluating economic policies, it is essential to consider multiple factors and not oversimplify the issues.

At the same time, this study has also sparked discussions about the independence of central banks. It suggests the potential risks that political interference in monetary policy may bring, as well as the importance of maintaining central bank independence.

Overall, this study provides us with a more comprehensive and objective perspective, helping us understand the complex relationships between monetary policy, government debt management, and government finance.