7.28

Waking up early in the morning, I found that the United States and the European Union had almost reached a trade agreement, which means that the U.S. and most major trading countries have completed tariff negotiations. China has an additional 90 days (which should actually be 107 days) left, and this is good news for the market. Although the tariffs of around 15% are still about six times higher than last year's average tariff of 2.5%, it is already a better figure compared to Trump's initial proposal. The market can temporarily breathe a sigh of relief.
Next is the monetary policy and the impact of tariffs on inflation. The formal tariffs will officially start on August 1st, except for a few countries like China (not sure if it will be TACO). The inflation data in September will start to reflect the tariff information, and the rest depends on the Federal Reserve.

This week's market will welcome significant macro events:
US-China economic and trade talks on July 28 and 29, trade negotiations between the EU and the US
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 31, the final deadline agreement for reciprocal tariffs on August 1, and the July non-farm payroll data.
The US stock market will welcome significant earnings reports and the largest IPO of the year next week. On July 30, Microsoft and Meta will report their earnings, followed by Apple and Amazon on July 31. On the same day, the US stock market will see the largest IPO of the year, Figma, valued at $16.5 billion.
Figma's IPO this time chose a limit price subscription. Based on last week's US stock earnings report, good performance does not necessarily lead to a rise, while poor performance will definitely lead to a drop. The main reason is that the market position is already very high, and there is no motivation for funds to push it up. Therefore, betting on earnings reports is relatively risky at the moment.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting on July 29;
On July 30, the United States released the second quarter GDP series data, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, and Powell held a press conference;
Ethereum will celebrate the 10th anniversary of its genesis block launch on July 30. The 10th anniversary live stream will be held on July 30 at 22:30, and a limited-time free NFT will be released.
The White House will publicly release its first cryptocurrency policy report on July 30.
Strategy plans to announce its second quarter financial report on July 31.
Trump had previously extended the "reciprocal tariff" postponement period to August 1 and claimed there would be no further extensions.
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens on August 1 at 8 AM Beijing time, accounting for 1.27% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $188 million.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM Beijing time on August 2, which is about 0.64% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 25 million USD.

BTC
We are now in the last week of July, facing the closing of the monthly line. From the overall direction and trend, Bitcoin remains unchanged and continues to rise. At the current position, the daily level is still the key focus. The daily level is currently starting to oscillate at a high level. For this position to rise significantly, there needs to be a large influx of funds to drive consecutive bullish candles upward for a substantial increase. If that doesn’t happen, it will just maintain its oscillation. The short-term view remains unchanged, with a key focus on the upper resistance at $120,000. If it can stabilize above this level, it will move towards $123,000. If not, it will continue to oscillate between $116,400 and $120,000. Currently, this position needs time to repair the daily level, so it will mostly maintain oscillation during the day. The support below is $116,400, with a defensive level at $114,000, and the resistance above is between $120,000 and $123,000.

ETH
Ethereum's recent market performance is clearly stronger than Bitcoin's. There are also favorable conditions in the upcoming week. The current position is set to challenge a very important resistance level at the 4000 mark. Currently, Ethereum is gradually moving upwards with small bullish candlesticks, and the overall trend remains upward. I personally believe that any pullback in Ethereum presents an opportunity. Even if Ethereum does not reach the corresponding high at this point, it will still undergo daily level adjustments. To summarize, as long as Ethereum does not break the 3635 level this week, it has the chance to challenge the previous high. Support levels are at 3814, 3766, and 3633, with a defensive level at 3540 and resistance at 3945-4000.

As mentioned to everyone on July 23rd, BNB has reached a new high today. At this position, I maintain the view that there is an opportunity to challenge the 900 mark.

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