August crypto market barometer: This Friday, major U.S. economic data is coming, and the battle for Bitcoin to hit the key level of $120,000 is about to begin.

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the key psychological level of $120,000, the U.S. economic data released intensively this week will be a decisive factor in determining whether it can break through. From the Consumer Confidence Index, JOLTS job openings, to ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and the heavyweight non-farm payroll report, along with the Fed's interest rate decision, these five signals will reshape market risk appetite. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of each data point on the crypto market, offering key decision-making references for traders.

[This Week's Key Events: Economic Data Schedule]

• Tuesday (July 29): Consumer Confidence Index, JOLTS Job Openings Data

• Wednesday (July 30): Fed FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Powell Press Conference

• Thursday (August 1): Initial jobless claims

• Friday (August 2): July Non-Farm Payroll Report (NFP), Unemployment Rate

  

【Consumer Confidence: A Barometer of Risk Appetite】 (Tuesday) The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board in the United States unexpectedly plummeted to 93.0 in June (previous value 98.0), marking a significant drop. The market generally expects the July data to rebound slightly to 96.0.

▍Key Impact Pathways:

• Lower than expected: Reflects consumers' ongoing concerns about Trump's tariff policies, suppressing the willingness to invest in risk assets, which is bearish for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
• Above expectations: It may boost market risk appetite and provide upward momentum for the crypto market. Reuters quoted Joanne Hsu, the head of consumer surveys, saying: "Unless consumers are confident that inflation will not worsen (for example, if trade policies remain stable), it is difficult for economic confidence to recover."

【Labor Market: The Anchor Point of Fed Policy】 This week's employment data will outline the health of the US economy, directly affecting Fed policy expectations.

1. JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday) It is expected that the number of job vacancies will drop to 7.4 million in June (previous value 7.8 million). Despite the anticipated decline, if the actual data exceeds the March low of 7.192 million, it still indicates that the labor market retains resilience, which may support the Fed in maintaining a hawkish stance.
2. ADP "Small Non-Farm" (Wednesday) In June, private sector employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 (expected to increase by 95,000). The market anticipates that 82,000 jobs will be added in July, which, if realized, will reverse the negative value but still appear weak. If the data weakens, it may strengthen the expectations for interest rate cuts.
3. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) The previous value was 217,000 (as of the week ending July 19). Economists expect it to rise slightly to 221,000 for the week ending July 26. ▍Market Interpretation Key:
   • Significant rise: Indicates economic slowdown, increases the probability of the Fed shifting to easing, weakening of the dollar may be beneficial for Bitcoin.
   • Mild fluctuations: The impact may be limited, focus shifts to non-farm.
4. Non-Farm Payroll Report ( NFP ) & Unemployment Rate (Friday) - June Data Review: New jobs added 147,000, unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% (previous value 4.2%). - July Expectations: New job additions significantly slowed to 102,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (affected by tariff policies). ▍Potential Impact on Bitcoin:

   • Strong data (>102,000 new jobs, unemployment rate ≤4.1%): May delay interest rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, suppress Bitcoin.

   • Weak data (≤102,000 new jobs, unemployment rate ≥4.2%): Enhances interest rate cut expectations, weakens the dollar, increases Bitcoin's attractiveness as an alternative asset. Analysts warn: The uncertainty of the White House's trade policy is forcing employers to adjust hiring plans, exacerbating fluctuations in the job market.

     

[Fed Interest Rate Decision: The True Eye of the Storm in the Market] **(Wednesday) Against the backdrop of CPI inflation rising to 2.7% in June, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although the FOMC meeting minutes from July 9 hinted at a rate cut within the year, the market expects a 96.9% probability of no action in July (with the rate maintained at 4.25%-4.50%).

▍Core Focus: Powell Press Conference

• Dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut in September): will ignite market optimism, benefiting risk assets.
• Hawkish stance (reiterating inflation concerns): May trigger a significant correction in the crypto market. Market observers point out: "Trump's recent meeting with Powell pressures the Fed to shift to a dovish stance, and some Fed officials are also calling for interest rate cuts. Powell's wording at the press conference is crucial."

【Conclusion: Bitcoin 120,000 Dollar Battle】 The intensive release of U.S. economic data and Fed decisions this week will jointly shape the risk tone of the crypto market in August. If consumer confidence rebounds, employment data shows significant weakness (especially non-farm), and Powell sends dovish signals, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through the $120,000 mark will significantly increase. Conversely, a strong job market, stubborn inflation expectations, and a hawkish Fed stance may trigger a depth correction. Traders need to closely monitor data releases from Tuesday to Friday and Powell's speeches, flexibly adjusting their positions to respond to market fluctuations. With high macroeconomic uncertainty, strict risk management is the top priority at this time.