$SBET

When I posted this, it was July 21st and there was incredible hype around the stock. Remember that! Posting something like this takes both risk and courage especially at a time like that 💯 At the same time, it reflects a lot in terms of understanding the market. Now I’m sharing it with all of you too. 👇
"In triangle breakouts like this, I place a lot of importance on the Fibo61 level and at the same time, I’m very cautious about potential reversals from that point. I’ve attached the VKTX chart; there was a similarly hype-driven market back then, just like today, and we had opened a trade on the triangle breakout. When it got rejected from the dead cat zone, I issued a stop-loss call. As you can see, the stock went even higher afterward but the drop was brutal.

I’ve made similar calls on App, ELF, AMD, and many others during setups like this. Drops followed afterward. These kinds of stocks are risky plays. If the Fed had stepped in with rate cuts, this rally could’ve been much bigger. But Powell didn’t step in. The arrow (black) I marked represents just one of several possible outcomes. It’s actually the worst-case scenario and it doesn’t have to happen but it’s a possibility.

Right now, the stock is holding at the equilibrium support. If it breaks, it will likely pull back to the $21 support first. I don’t want to hype up names like these just to have you buy in, then dismiss the drop as “normal” later and move on to the next hype. I know 90% of influencers on X do exactly that and weirdly, they don’t get much backlash. But I don’t want to follow that path.

This stock first needs to close above $29 on the monthly chart for a healthy uptrend

The black arrow represents a path that may occur if the rally continues still just a possibility.

The green arrow is the healthiest path, likely to occur with a correction.

The blue path represents the hype-fueled scenario, which may lead to sharper rallies and sharper corrections later on.

$22.55 is a critical support. If there’s a weekly close below that level, the green path becomes more likely.

A correction is approaching. At this stage, I continue to encourage you to set aside cash at every opportunity, wait for a pullback to enter, and open positions only in amounts that won’t strain your portfolio. It’s time to be a bit more defensive. I want to grow the portfolio as a whole in a healthy way. We’ve already achieved solid growth after the April bloodbath. Now it’s time to protect it.

If you still want to open a trade, make sure it’s with a small allocation that won’t burden your portfolio.

What I’ve drawn here represents just a few of hundreds of possible outcomes. These markets move based on probabilities and when those probabilities shift, we need to adapt dynamically, because the market itself is extremely dynamic.

There’s no such thing as a valid 3-year or 5-year chart projection. Does anyone truly know what a company will face in the future? Let’s take META go ahead and try drawing a 5-year projection for it. In 2021, it dropped all the way to $90 who could’ve predicted that? These are fairy tales, and they’re lying to you.

This market is highly dynamic and demands quick decision-making. Sure, I might know that the primary trend won’t disappear, and in that case, I could offer a simple suggestion like “hold and add.” But even that strategy only works in very rare cases.

Right now, I see people talking about past moves, but I also know exactly where those same people stood back then. When it came to Palantir, it was only Cat, myself, and two or three other names. Suddenly, everyone became a Palantir investor. Don’t believe them.

For now, I find the green arrow more likely.

By the way, I’m actually taking unnecessary risks and putting myself under more stress by doing so. If I just kept saying HOLD, I wouldn’t be this exhausted.

At the same time, I’m analyzing based on the weekly chart, and the week hasn’t closed yet. I’ll be able to say something more definitive after the weekly close. It might even rise in the remaining days and shift back to the blue path."