Bitcoin is facing resistance at the $120,000 level and is consolidating, while on-chain indicators MVRV and the proportion of new investors reveal that the bull run still has room to grow.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to oscillate below the key resistance level of $120,000, trading narrowly above $118,000 in the past 24 hours, down nearly 4% from its historical high. Despite the lack of upward momentum, analysts point out that the current consolidation resembles a "momentum phase" of a bull run rather than a precursor to a fall. The key on-chain indicator MVRV ratio (2.2) is approaching its 365-day moving average, and history shows that this pattern is often followed by a price rebound; meanwhile, the proportion of new investors (30%) is far below the overheated market level (60-70%), indicating that the market has not yet entered a frenzy stage, with new capital continuously flowing in to support the bull run.

BTC price is pressured at 120,000, and the market enters a consolidation phase Bitcoin (BTC) has recently faced resistance below the important psychological level of $120,000, struggling to gather enough momentum for a breakout. In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency price has fluctuated narrowly above $118,000, down nearly 4% from its recent all-time high, showing a short-term technical pullback.

Although the price lacks a clear upward trend, market analysts generally believe that the current consolidation is more likely to be an "energy consolidation" phase in the bull run cycle, rather than a sign of an imminent sharp fall. Market participants are closely monitoring key on-chain data to assess the next direction.

MVRV ratio approaches key moving average, history suggests rebound is imminent CryptoQuant analyst CoinCare highlighted the signal significance of the Bitcoin market value to realized value ratio (MVRV Ratio) in the current cycle. The MVRV ratio is used to measure the degree of deviation between the trading price of BTC and its perceived fair value: a reading below 1 typically corresponds to market bottoms, while above 3.7 is often associated with market tops.

(Bitcoin MVRV Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant)

In an analysis titled "The MVRV Indicator is Approaching Its 365-Day Moving Average, What Will Happen Next?", CoinCare points out that Bitcoin's current MVRV ratio is 2.2, gradually approaching its 365-day moving average. The analyst emphasizes: "Historical data shows that when the MVRV ratio converges towards its long-term mean, a rebound often occurs, entering the overvalued region, and this process is usually accompanied by a price increase." Based on historical patterns, CoinCare expects Bitcoin to continue consolidating, followed by an attempt to rally again. If buying pressure increases, it may retest overbought levels (MVRV >3.7).

New investors account for 30%, indicating that the bull run has not yet overheated Another analyst from CryptoQuant, Axel Adler Jr., analyzed the health of the Bitcoin market from the perspective of investor structure. His research data shows that the market dominance of new investors (holding time < 6 months) is currently 30%. This level is significantly lower than the previous peaks that indicated an overheated market—during the local high points in March and December 2024, the proportion of new investors reached 64% and 72%, respectively.

AxelAdlerJr's analysis suggests that the steady increase in activity from new market participants since July 2024 indicates that incremental funds (fresh liquidity) are continuously flowing into the market, providing support for the current bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTH, holding coins for ≥3 years) are selling at a moderate pace (coefficient 0.3), which means that the supply of these long-term holdings is being gradually absorbed by the market without triggering a sharp price correction (healthy turnover).

"This dynamic indicates that although new buyers are active, there is still room for the market to reach a frenzy level (where new investors account for over 60-70%)," summarized Axel Adler Jr. This provides structural support for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend in the current bull run cycle.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's stalemate at the $120,000 mark coincides with key on-chain indicators sending positive signals. The convergence pattern of the MVRV ratio suggests a historical rebound may be imminent, while the healthy proportion of new investors indicates that the market is far from a dangerously overheated state. The orderly turnover among long-term holders is more conducive to stabilizing the market. These two on-chain indicators point to the fact that the current consolidation is more likely a buildup in the middle of a bull run, rather than the end of the feast. If incremental funds continue to enter and effectively absorb the selling pressure above, it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks through the $120,000 resistance and begins a new round of upward movement. Investors should closely monitor the trends in the MVRV ratio and changes in the proportion of new investors as important indicators for assessing market heat and potential turning points.