Crypto Market Weekly Review (6.15-6.22): Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Market Fluctuation

This week, the crypto market experienced the intertwined effects of multiple factors. Bitcoin continued to test the range of $102,000 to $109,000, experiencing a brief decline over the weekend due to a sudden increase in geopolitical risks, followed by some recovery.

The internal structural forces of the crypto market remain intact, serving as an important support for stable prices. However, due to the intensified geopolitical conflicts, short-term traders have priced Bitcoin downwards. Under the condition of stable internal structure, the subsequent trend of Bitcoin mainly depends on the development of the geopolitical situation. If the conflicts gradually ease, Bitcoin is expected to return to the $105,000 level.

Macroeconomic Environment and Geopolitical Situation

This week, the situation in the Middle East has shown a spiral escalation trend. From the 16th to the 18th, both sides of the conflict continued military actions, leading to an increase in the prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold. On the 19th, the United States stated that it is assessing military options, marking a further escalation of the situation.

On the 20th, the market briefly showed signs of easing, but this was quickly shattered. In the early hours of the 21st, the United States carried out precise strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering severe diplomatic shockwaves. Iran threatened to take retaliatory actions, and the situation became tense once again.

This series of events has driven up crude oil prices, favored safe-haven assets, and caused a pullback in tech stocks. As a high-risk asset, crypto assets have also shown significant fluctuation, with Bitcoin down 4.36% for the week. The subsequent developments will continue to impact global asset pricing.

Crypto market performance

This week, crypto assets experienced multiple impacts from institutional funding support, rising derivative risks, and sudden geopolitical risks. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the range of $102,000 - $109,000, with a brief decline over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions, followed by partial recovery.

At the beginning of the week, the market's expectation of a "controllable" situation brought a slight rebound, with Bitcoin reaching a maximum of 109,000 USD. Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs have provided important support for the price.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged in the middle of the week, but did not alter the market fluctuation situation. On Friday, institutional reductions in positions triggered a chain reaction, leading to a noticeable correction in assets like Ethereum. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $100,000, but the decline was relatively limited, indicating a certain level of resistance to falling.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has temporarily fallen below the first upward trend line but is still operating within the $90,000-$110,000 range. The structural strength in the market remains intact, and the short-term trend is mainly influenced by geopolitical situations. If the conflict continues to escalate, it may test the key support levels of $100,000 and $90,000.

Capital Flow

This week, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.022 billion, which is a slight decrease from last week but still maintains a high level. The stablecoin channel has turned into a slight net outflow of $132 million. The inflow of Ethereum ETFs has also slowed down, with an outflow of over $100 million occurring on Friday.

Long-term holders continue to increase their positions, while short-term holders are reducing theirs. The inventory of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline, but the outflow has significantly narrowed to 1555.9 coins. This may indicate that long-term investors' confidence remains, but short-term speculative enthusiasm is cooling.

Market Outlook

Currently, the short-term pricing of Bitcoin is mainly influenced by short-term traders in the market and the flow of funds into ETFs, both of which have shown signs of cooling down. The future trend will mainly depend on the development of geopolitical situations:

• If the conflict eases quickly, Bitcoin is expected to return to the 105,000 USD level.
• If the situation continues to worsen, it may drop below $100,000 and even test the support at $90,000.

Unless the conflict escalates into a regional war, the long-term bullish logic for Bitcoin remains unchanged. Investors should closely monitor changes in the geopolitical situation and operate cautiously to avoid risks.