Ethereum Price Analysis: Future Trends from Fundamental and Technical Perspectives

Recently, the price of Ethereum has surged strongly, breaking through the 2800 USD mark and approaching 4000 USD. This article analyzes the reasons behind its rise and future expectations from both the fundamental and technical perspectives.

Ethereum Fundamental Analysis

1. Main Technology Upgrade Plan

• Lowering the verification threshold: Planned to launch in the second half of 2025, gradually reducing the staking requirement from 32 ETH to 16 ETH and even 1 ETH, increasing the annualized return rate to 6%-8%.

• Achieve cross-chain integration between the mainnet and L2: Scheduled to launch by the end of 2025, breaking down the interaction barriers between the mainnet and major Layer 2 networks, enhancing the capital efficiency of DeFi protocols.

• Reshaping the EVM with RISC-V architecture: Research and development is expected to start in the second half of 2025, aiming to increase the execution speed of smart contracts by 3-5 times and reduce Gas fees by over 50%.

• The mainnet will introduce zkEVM: deployment is expected to be completed between the end of 2025 and mid-2026, aiming to achieve 99% block verification within 10 seconds, significantly enhancing the performance of the mainnet.

2. ETF Positioning Status

• Institutional holders of the US spot ETF hold approximately 5.038 million ETH, with BlackRock accounting for 2.461 million.

• The average buying cost for institutions is above $2800, and the current price is still in the "stuck" range.

• BlackRock continues to increase its holdings, playing the role of "anchor" for ETH prices.

3. Analysis of Old DeFi Protocols

• Staking/LST related protocols: Lido, Rocket Pool, etc., with an annualized yield of about 3-4%.

• Decentralized Lending: Aave, Compound, with returns from loan interest.

• DEX: Uniswap, Curve, mainly earn from trading fees.

• Re-staking/MEV: EigenLayer, future earnings come from AVS customer service fees.

• Stablecoins: MakerDAO, Liquity, with revenue coming from fees paid by borrowers.

Technical Analysis

• The proportion of floating profits has reached 95%, approaching historic highs, and there may be adjustment risks in the short term.

• The structural changes on the Bitcoin blockchain show strong "high-level support capacity," providing emotional support for ETH.

• BTC shows a stable upward structure of "repeated fluctuations → chip accumulation → breakthrough turnover."

Conclusion

The rise in Ethereum prices is supported by continuous purchases of ETFs, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it may face adjustment pressure, while in the medium to long term, attention should still be paid to ecological development and the implementation of technological upgrades. Investors should pay attention to changes in market sentiment and manage risks effectively.