Why is the CPI data from August 12th especially important‼️

The excuse for the Fed's Powell not to cut interest rates is simply two: one is inflation, and the other is non-farm payroll data.
The non-farm payrolls released on August 1st showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, far below the expected 104,000. More critically, the data for May and June was significantly revised down: May was revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June was revised from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the two months.
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the U.S. economy is not as good as imagined. With the economy not doing well, interest rates will naturally be lowered to stimulate the economy. This means there is one less excuse for Powell to avoid lowering interest rates, and now only inflation remains.
Due to the continued postponement of the Sino-U.S. tariff negotiations for 90 days, the inflation data is not expected to be too bad, so the second excuse mentioned by Powell may also be untenable, which leads to a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September reaching 89.1%.
Has anyone noticed a detail in the personnel changes of the Federal Reserve? Hawkish Governor Christopher Waller announced his resignation on August 8, which provides an opportunity for Trump to appoint a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" in advance. This could potentially accelerate a shift in policy.
In the last interest rate meeting, there were two board members who voted against, marking the first time since 1993. They both supported a 25 basis point rate cut. This also indicates that there are certain differences within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy.
Therefore, from this key information, it can be analyzed that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates, and the market has also given nearly a 90% probability. The interest rate cut in September is no longer in question; it is just a debate over whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
But there is also a special situation that cannot be ruled out, which is that the inflation data deteriorates very severely (after all, this data can also be fabricated). #打榜优质内容#