Cardano (ADA) price prediction: Whale scoops up $166 million, breaking through the key $0.83 resistance wall with hopes of hitting the $1 target.

Cardano (ADA) is currently priced at $0.82, with a 2.82% rise in the past 24 hours, reigniting bullish sentiment in the market. On-chain data shows that whale addresses (holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA) swept up 20 million ADA (worth approximately $166 million) from August 9 to 10, with a net inflow of $11 million into spot exchanges during the same period, followed by an additional $3.61 million, indicating strong accumulation. However, the perpetual futures market shows divergence: volume has declined by 21.49% to $2.14 billion, and the long-short ratio has fallen below 1, suggesting short-term selling pressure. Whether ADA can break through the key $0.83 resistance wall (which previously triggered a 20% pullback) will determine its success in hitting the $1 target.

【Whales and Spot Join Forces: Strong Accumulation Signal】

(Source: Santiment) The recent price rise of ADA is strongly supported by significant on-chain buying and inflow of spot funds:

• Whales Strike: According to Santiment data, Whale Addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA purchased a total of 20 million ADA in a 48-hour period from August 9 to 10, worth approximately $166 million at the time of purchase.

• Spot Capital Inflow: CoinGlass data shows that during the same period, the funds net inflow through spot trading exchanges reached 11 million USD. In the more recent period, spot buyers have further increased by 3.61 million USD. This sustained net inflow into Spot is an important confirmation of the market's bullish sentiment.

  

  (Source: Coinglass)

[Perptual Futures Concerns: Declining Volume, Negative Long-Short Ratio] In contrast to the positive signals from whales and Spot, the Perpetual Futures market shows signs of fatigue:

(Source: TradingView)

• Long-Short Ratio falls below 1: In the past 24 hours, the market's Long-to-Short Ratio has dropped below 1, indicating that the trading volume of short positions (opening short positions) in the futures market may have surpassed that of long positions (opening long positions).
• Volume Sharp Decline: The total trading volume of Perptual Futures decreased by 21.49% (a reduction of about $459 million), falling to $2.14 billion, indicating a cooling in the activity of derivatives trading.
• Funding Rate Remains Positive: It is worth noting that although short positions are temporarily dominant, the Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate remains significantly positive (0.0108%). This means that long positions still dominate the market, and short holders must continue to pay funding fees to longs, indicating that the overall derivatives market structure has not yet turned bearish.

【Key Resistance: $0.83 as the Long-Short Watershed】

(Source: TradingView) For ADA to regain its upward momentum and ultimately challenge the 1 dollar mark, it must successively overcome the key resistance levels on the chart: $0.83, $0.88, and $0.93.

• The current focus is on the $0.83 resistance wall. Historical analysis shows that the last time ADA touched this area, it triggered a pullback of over 20%.
• Short-term Risk: If ADA lacks sufficient upward momentum while testing $0.83, it faces a significant risk of falling.
• Breakthrough Opportunity: If it can effectively and strongly break through $0.83, it is expected to lay the foundation for a stronger upward trend in the future, opening up space to challenge higher resistance levels.

[Conclusion: The Key Battle of Resistance Amid Spot Accumulation and Derivative Divergence] The ADA market is currently showing a "triple divergence signal": whales are actively accumulating, spot funds are continuously flowing in, and the trading volume of perpetual futures is declining, with the Long-Short Ratio turning negative in contrast. This reflects the divergence in behaviors of different market participants (long-term holders vs. short-term leveraged traders). The strong accumulation by whales and spot investors provides solid potential support for ADA, but the short-term weakness revealed by perpetual futures and the historical selling pressure at the $0.83 level suggest that a breakout will not be immediate. In the coming days, ADA's performance around the $0.83 mark will be a key barometer. If it can effectively break through and hold that resistance with the momentum from spot accumulation, it will significantly boost market confidence, targeting higher price levels; conversely, if it faces resistance and falls back, it may trigger further exits from short-term leveraged funds, leading to a price pullback. Investors need to closely monitor the volume-price coordination at this key price level and changes in derivatives market sentiment.