ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from August 15, 2025, 03:30)

Core Logic: Overbought area volume-price divergence, primarily short.

Key Data Analysis
Price anomaly:

The opening price of 4566.97 contradicts the highest price of 4566.83 (highest price < opening price), the actual fluctuation range should be 4549.33-4588.20 (amplitude 0.85%), closing at the intraday high of 4588.20.

Support: 4560 (psychological level), 4549.33 (intraday low); Resistance: 4588.20 (previous high), 4600 (round number).

Volume-price divergence: 45,690 trading volume < 10-day average volume 71,162, price increase not supported by volume.

Indicator Risk:

KDJ Extreme Overbought: J value 102.59 (>100 seriously overbought), K/D value high position dead cross warning.

MACD Concerns: The green bars (12.61) are amplifying, but the DIF (-26.09) is deep in the negative zone, making the rebound momentum unsustainable.

RSI Divergence: RSI1(58.95) and RSI3(43.54) are diverging, indicating insufficient bullish strength.

Low-risk strategy: precise short at resistance level
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):

The price rebounded to the range of 4585-4588 (previous high resistance) without significant volume (VOLUME<50,000).

Target: 4570 → 4560 (1.5 times amplitude).

Stop Loss: 4595 (Breakthrough previous high +0.15%).

Bullish emergency conditions:

The volume breaks through 4595 (VOLUME>60,000) and the KDJ golden cross occurs, chase the long position to 4610.

Or it may rapidly drop to stabilize at 4555-4560 (15-minute long lower shadow), with a short-term long target of 4580.

Stop loss: 4550 (breaks key platform).

Timeliness and Risk Control
Operation window: 03:45-04:30 (low liquidity period of the Asian early session).

Holding time: ≤15 minutes, take profit at 80% when profit reaches 15 USD.

Position management: ≤2% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥4:1 (stop loss $8, take profit $32).

Strategic Advantage: Utilize the extreme overbought J value + volume-price divergence combination, with odds as high as 1:4; choosing to enter at absolute resistance levels keeps the risk manageable.
Risk Warning: If the pressure of 4585 is not reached before 04:30, or if the MACD green bars continue to expand, abandon the trade!

Action Summary:
① Preferred Short Position: Short at 4587 with light exposure, stop loss at 4595, target 4570→4560.
② Alternative Long Position: Breakout at 4595 to chase long to 4610, or stable at 4558 to take short long to 4580, strict stop loss.

(Note: There is a contradiction in the opening/high price data, with 4549-4588 as the actual fluctuation range; if the actual price > 4600, the strategy is invalid) #Gate 8月储备金报告出炉# #BTC再创新高# #晒出我的Alpha积分#