Analysis of Sui ecological data and token release

Year;since;5;month;3;day since it was launched, so far;40;more than days. As one of the representative projects of the "Move" public chain, Sui; represents a different development direction from Ethereum L2. Since the project was launched, there have been many controversies, especially its token issuance method and release model. Some people think that it will follow the "ICP" footsteps, while others think that it may be similar to the "2021" new public chain.

At present, how is the ecological development of Sui; How will the token release and demand be in the near future?

1. Data on the chain

1. TVL

As of June 13, Sui's TVL was US$15.22 million, of which DEX Cetus accounted for more than 60% of TVL. Among all the public chains and the second layer, the "TVL" ranks at the "54th" place. At its peak; TVL; reached; 3601; million US dollars, which is equivalent to a drop of more than; 50%.

compared with another; move; representative project; Aptos. Aptos; current; TVL; is; 4211; million US dollars, the highest reached about; 65 million;

2. Trading Volume

Sui's highest daily trading volume on the DEX occurred on May 10, exceeding $19 million, and has since fallen. Since June, most of the daily trading volumes have been between 3 million and 6 million, and the trading volume is relatively low.

3. Activity

Since its launch, the total number of transactions is; 1653; million times, the average; TPS* is; 3;, the total number of active addresses is; 85; million, and the number of active nodes is; 104;. As can be seen from the figure below, the highest "TPS" since its launch was "26;", which appeared on the "5; month; 12; day", which was the date of "Turbos IDO;".

*Remarks: The "TPS" here refers to the actual operation The; TPS, not the theoretically runnable; TPS.

Compared with the "TPS" of Ethereum L2, at present, Sui; actual; TPS; is still very low.

From the perspective of daily active addresses, the highest daily active address appears at;5; Month;20;day, reached;13;million, the main reason is that;5;month;19;day;Cetus;Open the function of unlicensed pool,meme;The project is airdropped across the network. In normal times, the daily active addresses are less than 10,000.

4. Cross-chain bridge

Currently, there are; 3; cross-chain bridges that can cross-chain funds to; Sui, namely; Wormhole, kriya.finance; and; WELLDONE. However, for the specific cross-chain amount, the cross-chain bridge does not have a corresponding data dashboard, so it is impossible to know.

2. Ecological projects

As of June 14th, a total of 66 items have been included in Sui.directory on Sui's official website. These projects are self-declared and filled by the project party, and many of them are still in testing and have not yet been officially launched.

A brief summary of the projects that have been launched and operated and issued tokens is made. The basic situation is as follows:

Source: coingecko, defillama, LD Capital

It can be seen that most of the ecological projects on Sui; did not perform well after they went online. As the head of "DEX", the two projects have been broken. Social platform; SUIA; fell nearly; 81.82%;. Suipad; performance is relatively good, the main reason is that; IDO; when the pricing is relatively low, FDV; only; 500; million US dollars.

The users and funds on Sui; are still relatively limited, which leads to the fact that "Abyss World" is conducted on "6; Month; 1; Day to; 4; Day; when IDO;, the selected network is; Polygon, not; Sui; .

3. Token release and demand

The community is most concerned about the release of ;Sui; tokens. This is a diagram of token distribution and unlocking from;token.unlocks; using data reported by Binance. The total amount of tokens is; 10 billion; the initial circulation is; 528; million, and the circulation accounts for; 5.28%;.

in;2023;year;5;month;month;10;month, Sui; There are two types of releases, one is the release of tokens previously participated in the exchange; IEO; the other is the release of tokens obtained by the pledged nodes.

IEO; price is each; SUI 0.1; US dollars, participation; IEO; the total number of tokens is; 450 million, unlocked during public sale; 1/13;, and then unlocked every month; 1/13;, points; 12; Months unlocked. Accordingly, about 3,461; million tokens are released each month.

SUI; Token node pledge can obtain token incentives, a total of; 1 billion; tokens are used for node pledge incentives.

In the first 90; epochs (1 epoch=; 1; day), 1,110,000; SUI; tokens will be rewarded every day. Thereafter every;90;epoch;decrease;10%;rewards. Currently there are approximately; 7.4; billion; SUI; tokens pledged in the system, with an average; APY; of; 5.61%;. According to this calculation, the circulation of this part of tokens increased by 33.3 million each month in the first three months after the launch, and increased by 30 million each month from the fourth to the sixth month pieces.

According to this, IEO; release and node pledge incentive release, the first three months are; 6794; million, accounting for 0.67% of the total tokens, equivalent to market value of about; 4755; million US dollars; In the sixth month, there were 6461 million tokens, accounting for 0.64% of the total tokens, equivalent to about 45.22 million U.S. dollars in market value.

Source: suivision

2023; Year; November; month, that is, after "Sui" goes online; 6; months later, a large amount will be unlocked. More than 1 billion coins will be unlocked on the same day, which will double the circulating tokens.

From the perspective of token demand, according to the above-mentioned data on the chain and the analysis of ecological projects, it can be seen that transactions are deserted, users are scarce, and there is no obvious demand for "SUI" tokens in the short term.

4. Comparison; Aptos; token release model

Compare; move; department; Aptos, to see the similarities and differences of the token release of these two projects.

The total supply of Aptos tokens (excluding the pledge incentive part) is; 1 billion; the initial circulation is; 130 million, accounting for; 13%;. In the first year after going online, some of the tokens held by the community and the foundation will be unlocked every month; 4.54; million, accounting for; 0.45% of the total tokens; equivalent to a market value of approximately; 28 million; million US dollars.

Starting from the second year after going online, in addition to the community and foundation releases, the core contributors and investors will also be released every month. From the 13th to the 18th month, 2000; 10,000 tokens will be released every month, accounting for 2% of the total tokens; from the 19th month to the 50th month, 675; , accounting for 0.67% of the total tokens.

In addition, Aptos; also has node pledge incentives. This part of the tokens is not mentioned in the initial release; 1 billion; among the tokens. Currently, the maximum reward rate (APY) for network staking is 7%; and the reward rate decreases by 1.5% every year until it drops to 3.25%.

At present, there are a total of; 860; million; APT; tokens in pledge in the network, accounting for nearly; 86%;. It can be seen that the total supply of tokens is 1.039 billion pieces, and this 39.5 million pieces belong to the additional issuance after node pledge incentives. Aptos; goes online for about; 8; months, and the monthly pledge incentive is about; 4.9 million; accounting for 0.49% of the total tokens.

It can be seen that Sui; and; Aptos; are both low Circulating, highly inflationary tokens. However, SUI;initial circulation is lower than;APT;equivalent to;APT;of;50%;;before;6;months, the number of tokens unlocked per month is higher than;APT;higher;50%;. The time of the first large-scale release of SUI was on-line; 6; months later, APT; on-line; 12; APT; uses monthly unlocking, there is a buffer period.

In general, SUI; faces a larger token supply than APT; in the first year, and a large supply of APT; comes in the second year.

5. Conclusion

Judging from the on-chain data and ecological projects, Sui; has insufficient users and fewer transactions, and is still in the process of cold start. It needs to attract users and capital inflows through continuous activities and construction.

However, combined with the current operational activities of "Sui", the team still pays more attention to the construction of the technical side at this stage, including holding hackathons and holding developer events around the world. User incentives have not yet been activated.

At the same time, on the one hand, in a bear market environment, funds and users tend to be conservative. On the other hand, the second layer of Ethereum is also continuing to develop. For existing users, it is more convenient and safer to transfer funds from Ethereum to the second layer. Therefore, it has attracted a large amount of on-site funds. Comparing the two, it is more difficult for Sui to attract funds and users.

From the perspective of the token economic model, the comparison is the same as; Move; the public chain; Aptos, Sui; the release pressure of tokens is concentrated in the first year. In the case of insufficient demand, matching such a large supply of tokens has led to greater selling pressure for the "SUI" token.