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Field research: The darkest hour has not yet come but NFT will not die
Author: Sleepy.mid; Source: Author Twitter @sleepy0x13
At the very beginning, I asked everyone for a wave of alternatives to Twitter. I feel that the old horse’s tricks of limiting traffic will make us Web3ers who spend a lot of time in Twitter uncomfortable. If you have a platform with a better user experience, you can share it migration!
Back to the topic.
I don’t think there is any need to review the recent incidents. I have also exchanged privately with many friends about the views of a certain team, so I won’t “add insult to injury” here, and I don’t need me to summarize the market conditions for you. The purpose of writing this article is actually to talk about my expectations and understanding of NFT from the perspective of an ordinary practitioner. If possible, I hope that you will not lose hope in the industry.
How to classify NFT?
First of all, let's talk about this point that I have always wanted to complain about.
On the Internet, people generally divide PFP and equity NFT into two categories, but as a practitioner, I would like to ask everyone to use their own minds to think about whether they should be divided in this way, because of this statement, I did not want to put the little ghost for a while. It is called PFP NFT.
The main premise of classification is the same level. Just as you cannot divide music categories into black music and rap music, you cannot divide NFT into PFP and equity categories.
**Pictures are just a form of expression after all, it does not mean that it can only be an air coin if it is an avatar, nor does it mean that it can only be made into a boring and unified card if it wants to be empowered. **
The basis of empowerment is the behavior of "holding NFT", and whether to empower and what to empower depends entirely on the team behind it. The little ghost is an avatar but it can also bring whitelists, Alpha information, Music festival tickets, physical product discounts and other rights and interests, I have also seen many non-avatar projects under the banner of "equity NFT" bring holders only a white list of some projects. (PS I will always brag about the little ghost, after all, it is the founder hahaha, but I try not to step on other people.)
What exactly is PFP?
Recently, many people have said that "the narrative of PFP is over." So what exactly is PFP?
Let me first give my point of view: **PFP is a financial product that can condense cultural consensus. **It may become a consumer product in the future, but in the current Web3 environment, PFP cannot be treated according to the logic of consumer products.
I used to avoid talking about the financial attributes of NFT, but things have two sides, and financial attributes are not necessarily a bad thing if they are used properly. Boring Ape relied on a wave of pulls to make everyone think about it from "will be killed by Meebits" to "Web3's largest IP". Azuki also survived the first crisis by relying on the soaring price. To give another very realistic example, it is difficult for Little Ghost to talk about brand joint names when the floor price is 0.1+, but things become much easier when it rises to around 0.3-0.5.
Consensus based on finance (floor price) is easy to form, but consensus based on culture is often confusing, because culture pays attention to the foundation, and people often confuse the cultural consensus based on finance (floor price) with the rooted cultural consensus Draw an equal sign. In my personal opinion, the cultural consensus based on finance (floor price) always lacks some vitality, just like many young people who are trapped in life now call Ma Yun "Dad" while "enjoying the 996 Reward". **
**Since PFP is a financial product that can condense cultural consensus, the work of "saving bureaus" before the project is released becomes crucial. **To be honest, Little Ghost didn't consider this issue at all when it was released, and didn't find a batch of giant whales in advance or find a market maker. This also caused the price after the release to be different from other projects in the same period to a certain extent. Soar. However, we also regard this as a good thing. Not using financial leverage when the foundation is unstable has become the key to protecting us in a bear market.
You can think about another interesting question. If the Az project is promoted again in the future, will you still be "convinced" by it, and will you invest a lot of effort in "building the community"?
How does IP become the original sin of NFT?
Another point of view that is often seen recently is that NFT should not develop in the direction of IP, and NFT must have a new "narrative".
Indeed, there is a lot of uncertainty in the IP route, and doing IP is a matter that takes a long time to settle, and this means greater uncertainty and time costs for the Crypto circle, but compared to many For the "narrative" that has not been verified and will be falsified soon, the **IP route is a channel that has been verified by the market, and the world will always need new IP. **
However, Web3 IP is very different from traditional Web2 IP. Most Web2 IP first capture a large number of fans through content output, and then realize it through derivatives, but **Web3 IP is missing content at least in the current situation output capacity. **And if you say "But didn't Hasbro sell the Transformers toys first and then make the Transformers animation?" Well, Hasbro at least has the ability to make toys. However, this does not prove that there is a problem with the track, it can only prove that the team is not capable.
I understand why they are not optimistic about the development path of NFT IP. We have also gone through the complete product design, production and logistics process ourselves, which is very tiring. But we don't need to deny the whole track, after all, Pudgy Penguins gave us a good demonstration. In addition to Fat Penguin, I recently had some exchanges with the Karafuru team. They also have a decent income from Web2 in Southeast Asia, which is enough to cover the team's operating costs.
It seems that NFT IP is not as difficult as many people expected, but the process does not seem to be as "vigorous" as many Crypto projects.
However, another problem is how to feed back these OG NFT Holders after Web2 earns money. Since it involves Web2’s business, it must be subject to legal supervision, and how to “divide profits” (or feedback) under legal supervision is also a moral principle. problem.
In addition to the closed business loop, the development of IP means that more people must join in. If it is not handled properly, the value of OG Holder will be greatly diluted, which is also a major reason for this incident. But at present, there are only so few people in the Web3 circle. It is unrealistic to rely on users within the circle to expand the audience. As mentioned above, project parties generally lack content creation capabilities and channel expansion capabilities, and there is no content creation If you want to expand your audience, you can only issue more NFTs, but now no one regards NFTs as consumer goods. If you continue to issue bonds, it will inevitably cause the bubble to burst.
Are we Web3 people taking Web3 too seriously?
I admit that this subtitle is a bit too headline hahaha, but this is something I have always wanted to discuss with you.
What do I personally believe in Web3? I don't think it's technical. I don't know code and programming, but from the intuitive point of view, the shock that AI brings to me is stronger. **I think the most world-changing thing about Web3 is the way of thinking it brings to the world. **Everyone can feel the iteration of productivity, and it is normal to be shocked; if you do not participate in the transformation of production relations, it is difficult to have a personal experience.
Bubble Mart's 2022 revenue will be 4.62 billion and net profit will be 570 million. What can Web3 bring them? Is it possible to make money by issuing Molly NFT? No, there are only a few people in the Web3 circle. **From a productivity point of view, it is difficult for Web3 to bring them significant growth. **Then if we think about it from another angle. Bubble Mart’s current IP is mainly acquired, which often means a large initial investment, including capital investment and betting on whether it will become popular in the future, and **Web3 can help Bubble Mart to quickly build from 0 Create a new IP of its own, and quickly capture early seed users. **As for why Bubble Mart has not done it yet, I guess it may be because it is worried that it will not be able to balance the proportion of financial attributes in it, and that the risks outweigh the benefits.
Some time ago, I chatted with a friend in the clothing industry. He wanted to help Web3 IP to "empower" and help these Web3 teams create physical products that they didn't know how to make. But after discussing with investors, he felt that it was not feasible. Because most of the life cycle of Web3 IP is too short, but the design and production of physical goods takes time.
In fact, after staying in the Web3 circle for a long time, I need to look up and look at the world. For a while, I will point to Mondrian's geometric paintings and say "it is very similar to the artwork on Art Blocks", and I will point to Keith Haring The painting said "It's very similar to that fool NFT". **Web3 is a comprehensive discipline, which requires us to continuously absorb nutrients and increase knowledge from the wider world. After all, Web3 is still a small circle, but every honest practitioner has a vision to change the world. It's not about keeping your head down. **
The darkest hour is not here yet, but NFT will not die
Some people say, "Our circle has been filled with Ponzi's blood since birth."
Ponzi means danger and opportunity, and to put it bluntly, a burst bubble is called Ponzi, and an unbroken bubble is called finance. **When we do Web3 IP, we need to deal with culture and finance, and find a balance between the two. **
To be honest, **In my opinion, the darkest moment of NFT is far from coming. **In addition to the liquidity of the 20k ETH that was taken away, Blur’s mining is becoming more and more vicious. The improper mechanism is causing a negative impact on the entire ecology, and NFT may continue to decline for a while.
In addition to the price, I have seen a large number of NFT players being hurt. Many of them may no longer be so active in participating in the construction of the community, and many of them may only participate in transactions in the future. This loss of vitality seems to me to be Even scarier things.
But as a practitioner, I will not sentence the entire industry to death because of the actions of one project, because I have seen the changes it has brought to my life, and the potential energy gathered by the IP of Little Ghost in more than a year It is even stronger than the IP that has been operating in Web2 for several years. Seeing that the potential energy of the little ghost is still getting stronger, I will always be Bullish.
**I don't think there will be a gap between Web3 and Web2 in the future, nor do I think NFT will always be an endless Ponzi bubble. Even if I'm surrounded by gamblers "with Ponzi's blood", I'm also looking forward to more Martin Luther King Jr. **