Polymarket predicts the 2028 U.S. presidential election: J.D. Vance leads, Trump’s re-election chances are slim.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the betting pool for the 2028 U.S. presidential election has attracted over $1.1 million in bets. Currently, J.D. Vance leads with a 28% chance of winning, but Trump's chances of re-election are considered slim to none. This article will delve into the betting situation on Polymarket and the dynamics of the various candidates.

J.D. Vance leads, Trump faces challenges

The latest betting data from Polymarket shows that J.D. Vance currently leads in the betting for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, with a 28% chance of winning. His current betting volume is $142,172, although his odds have dropped from an initial 51% to the current range of 25%-28%. Many investors believe that Vance will take over the presidency after Trump's term ends.

Trump's re-election chances

Although the U.S. Constitution stipulates that the president can serve a maximum of two consecutive terms, Trump still has a 3% chance of appearing in this betting. Trump's chances of re-election are considered very slim, especially after the release of his "Trump 2028" hats, despite Trump repeatedly hinting at his intention to run again. However, voters are clearly skeptical of this vision. Trump's current betting amount is $148,028, placing him behind Vance.

Other Popular Candidates

In addition to Vance and Trump, several politicians from both parties have attracted the attention of bettors. Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom ranks second with a 14% probability, while New York Congressman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has an 11% chance, making her a popular choice among Democrats.

Other notable figures include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, current Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., and former Trump supporter and owner of social media platform X (formerly Twitter) Elon Musk.

It is worth noting that former Vice President and 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris also appeared on the voting list. Despite Harris's odds being only 3%, her betting amount is $117,168, ranking second after Trump.

Conclusion: The betting market for the 2028 U.S. presidential election reflects the concerns of crypto users and investors regarding the future developments of political figures. As the election approaches, how candidates and their supporters adjust their strategies will directly affect their chances of winning the election. We will continue to monitor these dynamics and provide timely updates on election-related information.