How to participate in the Polymarket Airdrop for Damao?

With a valuation of billions, the coin issuance time is promising. An average transaction amount greater than 500U can make you one of the top 10% of users. This airdrop feast is worth looking forward to.

Written by: @mattdotfi

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

This article will analyze in detail whether it is still worth participating in the Polymarket Airdrop mining at this stage.

What is Polymarket

Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to bet on events by choosing between two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention due to betting events related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the odds on Polymarket indicated that Donald Trump was more likely to succeed in his campaign than Kamala Harris, which led many people to place bets on Polymarket. After Trump's successful campaign, Polymarket became increasingly popular.

Polymarket currently does not have an official coin, but the team has hinted multiple times that they will issue a coin. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture capital funding, including last week's Series C funding. While we do not know much about this round, sources from June indicated that they hope to achieve a valuation of over $1 billion in their $200 million funding.

Source: Crunchbase

About Airdrop

The Polymarket token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion, which seems to be the market consensus, but we also need to consider the following factors:

Conservatively, it is estimated that up to 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only eligible recipients of the airdrop, and Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.

The sustainability of Polymarket events may also be important, as it means you have enough time to participate.

Polymarket prediction market has been running for quite a long time, and CC2Ventures hinted that a snapshot was taken last year.

If you want to participate in Airdrop mining, you need to stake on the market. The following data can be referenced:

• Cumulative trading volume reached 15.7 billion USD.
• On average, there are 24,000 active wallets placing bets on Polymarket every day.

Data source: Dune Analytics

• Currently, there are 1.2 million wallets that have interacted, with half of them having staked more than 5 times.
• To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed 500 dollars.

Data Source: Dune Analytics

Conclusion

If the snapshot has not yet taken place, to qualify for the Airdrop, you should place bets in markets that are advantageous and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500. You may also need to bet in multiple markets and maintain activity at least once a week.

If you want to participate in this Airdrop mining, you must first ensure that you can bear trading losses in the three to four-digit range, as over 90% of traders on any betting/trading platform will incur losses in the long run. Since the expected value (EV) is high enough, it can offset the anticipated losses.

In my opinion, I will only participate in Airdrop mining when the coins are expected to launch at a valuation of several billion dollars. The activities on the platform and the average staking amount are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you are expected to incur losses in the long run.