Trump delays tariffs on China, triggering Bitcoin market! BTC responds with a rapid rise, is $121,000 a critical point for bulls and bears? | BTC price prediction

U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on August 12, postponing the tariff hike plan on Chinese goods for another 90 days. This news stimulated market risk appetite, and Bitcoin (BTC) prices surged, reaching a peak of $119,800 (at the time of writing). Analysts point out that if BTC can hold above the key level of $121,000, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $123,000, but caution is needed regarding the gap filling demand below $119,000 in CME futures. Short-term trends are also influenced by the U.S. CPI/PPI inflation data on August 12/13 and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September (probability 86.4%). Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa proposed two technical paths for BTC's subsequent trend.

[Tariff Delay Ignites Encryption Market] On the eve of the August 12 deadline, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken action to extend the pause on tariffs on Chinese goods. This delay in the tariff deadline against China has significantly boosted market risk sentiment, directly triggering a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices.

[Policy implemented, BTC rises sharply] According to CNBC, President Trump has signed an executive order to delay the proposed tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days. This move comes ahead of the original deadline of August 12.

After the news was released, the Bitcoin price reacted quickly. At the time of writing, BTC reached a high of $119,800. According to earlier analysis from CoinGape, after Bitcoin broke through $122,000 earlier in the day, the target is now aimed at the current $123,000 historical high (ATH). However, this round of rise did not continue, and Bitcoin fell back to a low of $119,000 after reaching a high. The market is closely watching: whether the news of tariff postponement can drive a new round of increase, or if this rebound is merely a technical correction's "dead cat bounce" (Dead Cat Bounce)?

[Key Resistance and Gap Theory] Notable technical signals indicate that there is a CME futures gap below the $119,000 price level. Well-known analyst "Titan of Crypto" points out that Bitcoin is likely to need to fill this gap before continuing its upward trend — historical data shows that BTC prices tend to fill such futures gaps most of the time.

[Short-term focus: inflation data and interest rate cut expectations] Meanwhile, other key factors will dominate the short-term trend of Bitcoin:

1. US CPI/PII Inflation Data: The US Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) and the Producer Price Index ( PPI ) will be released on August 12 and 13, respectively.
2. Impact of Fed Policy: If the data shows that inflation continues to cool, it will strengthen the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September. Currently, the pricing in the federal funds futures market shows that the probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting is as high as 86.4%. An increase in rate cut expectations usually benefits risk assets, including Bitcoin.

[Analyst Prediction: Two Technical Paths for BTC Ahead] Encryption analyst Altcoin Sherpa proposed two potential technical scenarios for the subsequent price movement of Bitcoin:

1. Pullback Bottoming Path: The price may retrace and form a bottom structure on a higher time frame. The analyst believes this process may take several weeks to complete, but it will lay the foundation for a more sustainable rise thereafter.
2. Liquidity Testing Path: The price of Bitcoin may directly reverse upwards, testing the high liquidity area around $120,000 (i.e., the price range where a large number of orders are concentrated). He added that this trend may occur in sync with Treasury activities and macroeconomic events.

Conclusion: Trump's delay in the decision on tariffs with China has injected a short-term boost into the encryption market, pushing Bitcoin to challenge the $120,000 mark. However, technically, there is pressure from the CME gap below $119,000 that needs to be filled, and strong resistance has already appeared at the $121,000 level. The US CPI/PPI inflation data to be released in the next 48 hours will be a key catalyst; if the data supports cooling inflation, coupled with the Fed's high expectation of 86.4% for interest rate cuts in September, it may create fundamental conditions for BTC to break through the historical high of $123,000. Investors need to closely monitor the struggle for the $121,000 bullish-bearish watershed; if there is an effective breakthrough, they can position accordingly, otherwise, be cautious of the risk of filling the gap below $119,000 (. The resonance between macro policies and encryption technical analysis has significantly increased market volatility this week.