US stocks are all on the rise, Ethereum continues to fluctuate, possibly recreating the mid-2021 market.

Market Observation

U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with technology stocks performing particularly well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, and a well-known chip company has once again surpassed Microsoft in market capitalization, becoming the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with a current market cap of $3.45 trillion. Stocks related to stablecoins in the Hong Kong market continue to strengthen, with many related companies' stock prices rising significantly. The sharp increase in the stock price of a well-known financial institution is mainly attributed to its early investment in stablecoin issuers, while the recent application for an IPO in the U.S. by that stablecoin issuer has become a catalyst.

Meanwhile, economists predict that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, but may choose to implement a significant cut of 50 basis points at that time. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-time and will not continue to affect the economy. In addition, the OECD has sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for the United States to 1.6%, warning that the trade policies of a certain political figure are dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely monitoring the May employment report set to be released this Friday to assess the economic situation.

In this context, analysts indicate that 2025 will be a key turning point for generative AI, transitioning from technological breakthroughs to widespread applications. Currently, AI is mainly used in the financial sector for traditional asset management and quantitative trading, but in the future, it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market through optimization of market-making strategies. Additionally, the construction of AI-enabled Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security audits and digital content assetization, will promote the synergistic development of AI and the Web3 ecosystem.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing increased volatility, with short-term fluctuations showing an upward trend. In terms of the political environment, both Poland and South Korea have elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies. Although market news has mostly been favorable, Bitcoin prices have not shown a significant pump. The head of digital asset research at a certain bank issued a warning that currently, 61 listed companies collectively hold 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If Bitcoin prices fall below 22% of these companies' average purchase price, it may trigger forced sales by these enterprises. Referring to the case of a mining company that sold 7,202 Bitcoins when prices fell below cost by 22% in 2022, if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, about half of the companies' holdings may face loss risks. This indicates that although the trend of corporate holdings has increased buying pressure, it has also buried potential selling risks.

Ethereum has shown relative stability, oscillating around $2600 for 25 days. The US Ethereum ETF has seen continuous accumulation for 12 days, with a large asset management company holding about $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis indicates that Ethereum may be approaching a critical turning point, facing a choice between upward or downward movement. On-chain data shows that a suspected whale or institution has purchased 108,278 Ether (approximately $283 million) via OTC methods. An OTC wallet of a certain digital asset company has withdrawn 89,000 ETH (approximately $234 million) from exchanges in the past 12 hours, subsequently transferring a total of 108,278 ETH to a specific address. Analysts point out that Ethereum is working to establish $2500 as a support level and solidify it as the low point of the macro range between $2500 and $4000. The current trend is similar to a period in mid-2021; if successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range-bound oscillation.

A research institution pointed out that despite Bitcoin continuously refreshing its historical highs and attracting institutional funds, the altcoin market has stagnated, with ongoing token unlocks and a lack of new narratives becoming bottlenecks for development. A certain public chain token has recently performed poorly, fluctuating around $150. Its meme coin platform plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation reaching $4 billion. Although the official confirmation of the specific sale time has not yet been made, the platform's social media account hinted that it might go live within two weeks, which could lead to outflow pressure on the entire ecosystem. Notably, early this morning, there were reports that a certain political figure would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application, encouraging supporters to buy Meme coins, which caused a brief 40% rise in a certain NFT market token. However, related parties subsequently denied any association with the project, leading that token to pull back nearly 20% from its peak.

Key Data (as of June 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (Year-to-date +12.73%), Daily spot trading volume $25.243 billion
• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (Year-to-date -21.69%), daily spot trading volume is $14.58 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 57 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.1%, Ether 9.6%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0247
• Sector rise and fall: AI down 2.1%; Meme down 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $148 million, including $25.52 million in BTC liquidations, $35.96 million in Ether liquidations, and $8.75 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (106908.13 USD), lower channel line (104791.13 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2588.05 USD), lower channel line (2536.80 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Inflows (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending a 3-day outflow)
• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (net inflow for 12 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts on June 5th.
• Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens on June 4 at 8 AM, which is 1.15% of the current circulating supply, worth about 1.1 million USD.
• Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock about 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on June 4th, which is 0.42% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 1.7 million USD.
• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8:00 AM on June 4th, which is 0.23% of the current circulating supply, valued at around $1.6 million.
• Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 81.55 million tokens at 8 PM on June 5, accounting for 69.37% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 46.9 million USD.

The number of ADP employment in the US for May is ( million ) (June 4, 20:15)

• Actual: Pending release / Previous value: 6.2 / Expected: 11

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 31 was ( million ) (June 5, 20:30).

• Actual: Pending announcement / Previous value: 24 / Expected: 23.5

Top 500 market cap gains today: 0×0.ai (0×0) rise 67.69%, Acet (ACT) rise 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) rise 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) rise 22.03%, Animecoin (ANIME) rise 21.70%.

Hot News

• The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF reached 109 million USD yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflow.
• It is suspected that a certain institution has purchased over 100,000 Ether through OTC, and now holds nearly 140,000 Ether.
• A large asset management company's Bitcoin spot ETF has entered the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching 72.4 billion USD in just 1.4 years since its establishment.
• The MELANIA project team transferred 150 million tokens, of which 20 million were sent to the Wintermute address.
• Spanish coffee chain Vanadi plans to invest over $1.1 billion to acquire Bitcoin, transforming into a "Bitcoin-first" company.
• A certain political figure's family denies involvement in the $TRUMP wallet project, and Magic Eden responds that it is an official collaboration.
• CEO of a tech company: Liquidated cryptocurrency at the end of last year, profiting 570 million yuan, with 80% distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A stablecoin issuer transferred over 37,000 BTC to Twenty One Capital, worth nearly $4 billion.
• Sonic airdrop will start in June, with 25% released instantly and the remaining 75% unlocked linearly in the form of NFTs.
• The CEO of a certain project has resigned, and a former exchange executive has taken over.
• Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of "Stride" preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
• Insider: A certain project plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation of $4 billion.
• Ethereum co-founder claims to be in talks with sovereign wealth funds for infrastructure collaboration