April 2025 Crypto Market Monthly Report

Summary

• In April 2025, the U.S. economy showed a pattern of slowing inflation alongside resilience in the labor market. However, escalating trade frictions and policy uncertainties led to significant market volatility, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation and growth, with the market paying close attention to the June FOMC meeting and the performance of corporate earnings impacted by tariffs.

• As of April 26, the global crypto market capitalization has rebounded to $3.07 trillion, a 4.17% increase from last month. Bitcoin's market share is 63.3%, and Ethereum's is 7.4%. Due to policy changes, trading volume has fluctuated sharply throughout the month, reaching $140.1 billion on April 22.

• This month, Bitcoin's price increased by 12.8%, with a net inflow of $2.25 billion into ETFs. Ethereum's price decreased by about 2%, with a net outflow of $13.8 million from ETFs. The stablecoin market remains resilient, with an overall inflow of $4.74 billion, and significant issuance of USDT and USDC.

• Bitcoin is currently in a long and short game at the key level of $95,000, with a bullish technical outlook. Ethereum aims for resistance at $1,830 after breaking the 20-day moving average. If Solana maintains above $153, it may challenge $180.

• Changes in tariff policy have triggered a market turmoil, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $74,000 before rebounding. The SEC has postponed the decision on the Ethereum ETF staking until June. A company has transformed into a "Solana version of MicroStrategy" and received $100 million in funding to lay out SOL, but there are still differences in the market regarding the high volatility of SOL as a reserve.

• Bitcoin's positioning in the game intensifies: a safe haven or a risk asset? The Ethereum Pectra upgrade focuses on improving efficiency. The narrative of tokenization in US stocks is heating up, but compliance and technical bottlenecks still restrict development.

1. Macroscopic Perspective

In April 2025, the U.S. macroeconomy is significantly affected by large-scale tariff policies, making the environment increasingly complex. These measures alter trade patterns, impact global supply chains, and bring new uncertainties to businesses and markets. Policymakers face a more complex environment, seeking a balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. The overall economic outlook is cautious, with no immediate systemic risks observed.

Inflationary pressures continue to ease. In March, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and dropped to 2.4% year-on-year. The core CPI rose only 0.1% month-on-month. Energy prices fell by 2.4%, and gasoline prices declined by 6.3%, significantly contributing to the slowdown in inflation.

The labor market remains resilient. Non-farm employment rose by 228,000 in March, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, suggesting potential softness.

Since April, the Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its balance sheet reduction, reflecting concerns about reserve adequacy and financial stability. In the context of rising uncertainty, it continues to adhere to a data-driven policy path.

The capital market has experienced significant volatility. On April 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points, marking its worst April performance in 93 years. The market decline was mainly driven by escalating tariff policies and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Although there was a brief rebound following reports of potential negotiations being restarted, overall sentiment remains weak.

The escalation of trade tensions disrupts global markets and exacerbates volatility in financial markets. The IMF has lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.8%. Analysts warn that the full impact of tariff policies has yet to be fully realized, posing significant risks to the mid-term outlook.

2. Crypto Market Overview

As of April 26, the average daily trading volume was $102.9 billion, a decrease of 13% compared to the previous period. On April 7 and 9, BTC fell to $74,000, triggering bottom fishing and a surge in trading volume. On April 22, the easing of tariff confrontations drove trading volume back up to $140.1 billion, but it remained below the high volatility period.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has rebounded to $3.07 trillion, an increase of 4.17% month-on-month. BTC accounts for 63.3%, and ETH for 7.4%. From April 22 to 26, the total market capitalization rebounded from $2.83 trillion to $3.07 trillion, rising by 8.6%, with sentiment shifting to a cautiously bullish outlook.

In April, the new popular tokens are mainly projects supported by venture capital, including DeFi staking types like BABY and STO, as well as infrastructure types like INIT, WCT, and HYPER.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

In April, the net inflow for BTC ETF was $2.25 billion. During the month, the price of BTC rose from $82,551 to $94,714, an increase of 12.8%.

ETH ETF had a net outflow of 13.8 million dollars. ETH price fell from 1823 dollars to 1786 dollars, a decrease of 2%.

Stablecoin inflow reached 4.74 billion USD, mainly from the issuance of USDT and USDC, which increased by 3.51 billion and 1.76 billion, respectively. The circulation of USDE decreased by 500 million.

4. Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

BTC is battling between bulls and bears near the resistance level of $95,000. The technical outlook is bullish, and after a breakout, it may rise to $100,000 to $107,000.

ETH breaks above the 20-day moving average with a target resistance of $1,830. If it breaks through or rebounds to $2,111, or even $2,550.

If SOL can maintain above $153, it is expected to rise to $180, restarting the wide fluctuation between $110 and $260.

5. Hot Events of This Month

1. The tariff policy caused a market turmoil, with BTC dropping to $74,627 at one point. After the policy eased, the crypto market rebounded, and BTC reached $93,948.

2. The SEC has postponed its decision on the Ethereum ETF staking until June, involving products from multiple institutions including Grayscale and VanEck.

3. A company received a $100 million investment to transform into a "Solana version of MicroStrategy", but there is controversy over SOL as the core reserve.

6. Outlook for Next Month

1. The market reshapes Bitcoin's positioning: a safe-haven asset or a risky asset? The correlation between BTC and gold has reached a two-year high.

2. The Ethereum Pectra upgrade focuses on efficiency improvements and is expected to be implemented on May 7. With the ETF staking approval approaching, it may become the market focus.

3. RWA US stocks on-chain continue to grow, leading companies are joining or promoting the development of the track, but still face compliance and technical challenges.