Encryption assets face challenges: BTC's safe-haven attribute is questioned again

Twenty days ago, CZ's HODL philosophy was still highly regarded. However, within just a few days, Trump's tariff policy seems to have shaken people's confidence in the HODL strategy.

In April 2025, Trump reintroduced tariff policies, affecting the global trade landscape. This is not his first time implementing such measures. During his term from 2017 to 2020, the Trump administration implemented a series of tariff policies based on the "America First" principle, which caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop by 500 points.

This tariff policy has a broader scope and greater strength, having a huge impact on the global financial market. From April 2 to 8, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell sharply, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2,300 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 4,600 points, and the S&P 500 index dropping below 5,000 points.

The encryption market has also not been spared. BTC fell to 74,500 USDT on the evening of June 7. Data shows that within 24 hours of the tariff policy taking effect, the encryption market experienced a widespread decline, with major encryption assets dropping between 3% and 10%, and a total market value evaporation of approximately 300 billion US dollars. Although there has been some recovery since then, it has not fully returned to its previous levels.

On April 10, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs for 75 countries, subsequently leading to a rebound in both traditional finance and encryption markets, with BTC price returning to the 80,000 USDT level. Data shows that over 80% of encryption tokens have seen an increase.

However, market sentiment remains in a state of extreme fear. Trump's statements on social media have sparked speculation about possible insider trading. At the same time, the market is concerned that in extreme cases, certain institutions may be forced to sell BTC, triggering a chain reaction.

BTC has long been regarded as "digital gold" and should possess hedging functions. However, in the recent tariff incident and its performance over the past six months, BTC has not fully played this role.

Comparing the price trends of BTC and gold spot, it can be observed that although both fluctuated in April, BTC had a greater amplitude of fluctuation. In the trend over the past six months, gold has continued to rise, while BTC has shown a downward trend.

In fact, the correlation between BTC and the three major U.S. stock indices is strengthening. At the same time, tokenized gold assets are performing strongly, with a market value close to $2 billion, becoming a new safe-haven hotspot in the encryption market. Since Trump's inauguration on January 20, the trading volume of major tokenized gold assets has surged.

This phenomenon has sparked contemplation about the essence of BTC. As a safe-haven asset, BTC should ideally rise against the trend during market turmoil. However, the facts show that it has failed to demonstrate independence in the face of macro risks and instead behaves similarly to high-risk assets.

Experts have pointed out that since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, with the involvement of traditional financial institutions, BTC has increasingly resembled a high Beta asset, with its price becoming more evidently influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and macro policy expectations.

This means that for institutional investors, BTC is not purely a hedging tool, but more like a risk exposure to the macro environment. In an environment of high interest rates, a strong dollar, and turmoil in the financial system, BTC does not possess a natural "counter-cyclical" advantage and is more viewed as a highly elastic speculative target.

If BTC cannot play a hedging role at critical moments, and even behaves similarly to tech stocks in the face of systemic risks, then is it truly "digital gold" or just another highly volatile asset? This is not a denial of BTC, but a reconsideration of the pricing logic of the entire encryption asset.

It is worth noting that similar tariff disputes have not appeared for the first time in U.S. history, and they often drive global trade mechanisms toward greater maturity and rationality. For example, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act signed by President Hoover in 1930 exacerbated the economic downturn at one point, but ultimately prompted the U.S. to shift toward a long-term free trade strategy.

The tariff policy proposed by the Trump administration, while grand in scale, quickly "hit the brakes" after the market reacted violently, resembling more of a negotiation strategy than a substantive conflict. Trump is adept at seeking a balance between creating risks and controlling them, and he is skilled at using financial markets as a political tool.

Another point worth noting is the enormous scale of U.S. Treasuries maturing in 2025, with the fiscal deficit issue looming large. The current tariff actions may serve as a means to bring about a new round of capital inflow into the U.S.: on one hand, by increasing the demand for the dollar through taxation, and on the other hand, by creating market uncertainty to depress asset prices and enhance the appeal of safe-haven assets, opening up funding channels for the U.S. Treasury market.

In the face of this complex situation, can encryption investors still adhere to long-termism? Obviously, the simple BTC HODL strategy is no longer sufficient to cope with the current market. Until the trade war and tariff war are over, the market's uncertainty and volatility will persist.

Some industry insiders point out that investors should focus on projects that have practical applications and good fundamentals. Although BTC may appreciate in value over the long term, some projects with better fundamentals may perform better during certain periods. This requires investors to have a higher level of cognitive ability and judgment.

Looking back at history, what has truly withstood the test of time are those structural assets and on-chain application networks that continue to exist and be used after each narrative collapse. Whether it is public chains, DePIN, AI and other infrastructures, or decentralized applications such as wallets and cross-chain bridges, they are the foundation that supports the advancement of the industry.

When the "Beta attribute" of BTC obscures its original intention, we need to re-establish our judgment of the real value on the chain. Long-termism should not only focus on the price of the coin but should also aim at understanding and participating in structural evolution. What is truly worth investing in are those Web3 projects that build a new order with code and mechanisms.

Therefore, instead of being anxious about short-term market conditions, it is better to understand those projects that continuously iterate protocols, promote implementation, and attempt to solve real problems with blockchain. This may be the true long-termism in the encryption market.