The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September.

Let's take a closer look at Powell's remarks this time and the logic behind them.
Before the meeting, the spokesperson Nick's tweet indirectly mentioned not lowering interest rates.
At the meeting, Powell said two sentences.
It's hard to say whether the data will become clear at the next meeting.
The measures we take next may be closer to neutral.
These two sentences are basically doing Tai Chi.
So, let's continue to see what else was said.
1) It is still too early to expect a cut in the federal funds rate in September.
2) Given the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, the current interest rate level is appropriate.
3) The impact of policy changes remains uncertain; the effect of tariffs on inflation will be short-term, but it is still too early to assess the extent of the impact.
4) The employment market has not weakened, but there is a clear downward trend in the labor market.
Powell's remarks were very neutral, aiming not to offend anyone.
No substantial policy guidance has been provided.
There is no strong tone either.
It is evident that Trump is under external pressure, while Waller and Bowman are facing internal pressure, making Powell a bit caught in a dilemma.
At the same time, it is once again clarified that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one-time, and the degree and process of the impact are also difficult for the Fed to judge. Since July, the United States has reached tariff agreements with multiple trading partners, so the weighted impact of tariffs can basically be ignored. As long as the effective tax rate is basically determined, the subsequent inflation path is also basically determined, which can provide greater certainty for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Currently, in addition to Powell, there is another important matter, which is that Powell said two dissenting voters (Waller and Bowman) will explain their opinions in the next couple of days. Normally, the public speeches of the Fed board members after the interest rate decision are quite deliberate and are uniformly arranged by the Fed. Why let the two dissenting voters, who support a rate cut, speak first about why they support a rate cut instead of allowing the hawkish board members to speak first about why they want to maintain the current stance?
This is actually quite thought-provoking.
This is an even greater concession to the understanding king.
Since the second quarter, inflation has been relatively mild, coupled with the pressure from Trump and Bessen to cut interest rates.
The Fed internally also understands that returning to a rate cut path in the future is inevitable.
The reason for lowering interest rates is very important.
Yes, one must have a justifiable reason to act.
Anyway, my Master Bao can't take the blame.
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