The possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates in July has decreased, and the market is focusing on the key price levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Observation

Recently, the market focus has been on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, several officials, including the Fed chair, have indicated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that price increases do not evolve into persistent inflation. They are cautious about a rate drop at the July meeting, believing that the current monetary policy is in a good position, leaning towards considering a rate cut later this year. This attitude stems from a reliance on future data and a prudent assessment of external factors. Although there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market, it has not yet shown obvious weakness, providing support for the Fed's patience.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, led by technology and bank stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite approaching historical highs. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index dropped for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Fed this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets, marking a new phase for digital assets in Hong Kong. The policy specifies the implementation of a licensing system for stablecoins by 2025, promotes the tokenization of real-world assets, and offers tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital.

The price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiration of the year, which may exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by macro news, finding strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a downward trend, indicating a lack of momentum for breaking new highs before demand recovery.

Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 in order to enter a new price discovery phase. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) momentum is weakening, but this may signal the late stage of a bull market cycle. If MVRV momentum strengthens, coupled with the support of capital inflows, the price of Bitcoin could break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.

For Ethereum, analysis indicates that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to trigger a stronger rebound. On-chain activity has cooled, and recently the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the United States issued a directive to accept cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting an "home buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432 (Year-to-date +14.64%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40 (Year-to-date -26.91%), daily spot trading volume is $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB ETH: 0.65 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• Sector Performance: RWA drop of 2.45%; NFT sector drop of 1.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 2.01 million USD.

ETF Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (continuing net inflow for 13 days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Today's Preview

• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts.
• A certain platform will launch Moonveil(MORE)
• Pipe Network will launch PIPE token sale
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlock.

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid and started purchasing HYPE.
• A certain whale deposited 1613 Bitcoins into the trading platform.
• Aqua 1 announces a strategic investment of 100 million USD in the WLFI governance token
• Huaxing Capital announced a $100 million entry into the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency field.
• A trading platform will delist multiple coins.
• GameStop raises $450 million again, which may be used to purchase Bitcoin.
• Solana's re-staking protocol Fragmetric launched the FRAG token.
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.