The market is facing a high-level fluctuation test, with rise signals coexisting with risks.

Recently, the market shows a coexistence of rise signals and potential risks. The macro environment is warming, with Trump's easing trade rhetoric and cooling inflation boosting market sentiment. However, the momentum of funds is weakening, with continuous declines in the inflow of stablecoins and ETFs, indicating insufficient new buying.

Although the price of Bitcoin has risen, the inflow of funds, the OTC premium, and the popularity of ETFs are all cooling down, indicating that the risk of a correction is increasing. In this context, investors should prioritize defense, closely monitor the support level around $100,000 for Bitcoin and the correction rhythm of Ethereum, and consider reducing positions in high Beta altcoins at the appropriate time.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

Recent trade fluctuations and CPI data have triggered short-term volatility in the market. The boom in the corporate bond market has supported the stock market but has also exacerbated the U.S. debt crisis. High leverage among consumers and businesses, combined with the Federal Reserve's policy constraints, has begun to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow Analysis and Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Structure

In terms of external capital flows, this week, ETF inflows amounted to $609 million, but the inflow volume continues to decline. Stablecoins saw an issuance increase of $877 million this week, with an average daily issuance of $112 million, remaining at a low level. The OTC sentiment indicators show that the stablecoin premium continues to decline underwater.

In terms of Bitcoin, the technical trend is in a volatile upward range, with an increase in the distribution of chips above $100,000. Ethereum has shown weaker performance relative to Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio breaking down this week, indicating that funds are continuously flowing back to Bitcoin dominance. On-chain data for Ethereum shows an increase in active addresses, which may indicate that the phase of bottoming out is complete.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Employment Data and Bitcoin Price

The statistical analysis of the relationship between ADP employment data and Bitcoin prices shows that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the probability of Bitcoin rising in the following 7 days is about 94%, with an average increase of 6.8%. This may be because strong employment data is seen as a signal of economic recovery, reducing market concerns about a recession.

However, Bitcoin's price elasticity to a single macro indicator is relatively limited. Regression analysis shows that for every 1% that ADP data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin only rises by an average of about 0.06%. This means that significant increases in Bitcoin often require a resonance of macro backgrounds or major events driven by the crypto market itself.

On-Chain Data Analysis

The total amount of stablecoins slightly rose this week to 211.256 billion, but the issuance amount was only 877 million, a significant decrease compared to the previous period. The average daily issuance has dropped to 125 million, reaching a new low in nearly four weeks, reflecting a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow, and the market may enter a wait-and-see phase.

The inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has slowed for three consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of only $609 million this week. Although the price is still within an upward channel, it has diverged from the underlying capital, indicating a lack of upward momentum and adjustment risks.

The off-market premium continues to decline below the waterline, diverging from price trends, indicating a weakening inflow of off-market funds and insufficient new market momentum. This aligns with the signals of a decline in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant drop in ETF fund inflows, suggesting that the market may be in a phase of stock game.

On-chain data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin chips in the range of $101,800 to $104,000 has risen by 1.72%, reflecting that this area is forming a market consensus and may become a short-term support or resistance level.

Analysis of holding addresses shows that large addresses (10k-100k BTC) are choosing to reduce their holdings at high levels, medium addresses (1k-10k BTC) exhibit strong trading activity, while small addresses (100-1k BTC) continue to steadily rise, reflecting the strategy differences among investors of different scales.

Market Outlook

Considering various indicators, the market may be entering a phase of high-level fluctuations. In the absence of new capital influx and significant positive news, it may maintain fluctuations or face adjustments in the short term. Investors should remain vigilant, monitor key support levels, and adjust their strategies in a timely manner according to market changes.