Fed's July interest rate expectations heat up, Bitcoin and Ethereum key price levels attract follow

Market Observation

Recently, the market focus has been on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, several Fed officials, including the Chair, have stated that more time is needed to observe in order to confirm that price increases do not evolve into persistent inflation, hence they are cautious about a rate cut in July. Officials generally believe that the current monetary policy is in a good position and are inclined to consider a rate cut later this year. This attitude stems from a reliance on future data and a cautious assessment of external factors. Although the labor market has slowed, it has not shown significant weakness, providing support for the Fed's patience.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, with technology stocks and bank stocks leading the gains. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index approached historical highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index declined for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released new policies for the development of digital assets, clearly stating that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented in 2025, promoting asset tokenization, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds. Through regulatory frameworks, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy.

The price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the momentum is slowing down. Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum options experience the largest expiry of the year, with the notional value of Bitcoin options reaching $15 billion and the maximum pain point at $102,000; the notional value of Ethereum options is $2.3 billion, with a maximum pain point at $2,200, which may exacerbate short-term volatility.

Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently mainly driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of 93,000 to 100,000 USD. However, both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a downward trend, and cautious sentiment is rising in the futures market, indicating that the market lacks the momentum to break new highs before demand recovers. The delay in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations is also an important factor leading to the stagnation of Bitcoin's price.

Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase. Currently, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is 2.22, which is below the historically overvalued range, indicating that there is still room for growth. If MVRV momentum strengthens, coupled with ETF capital inflow support, the price of Bitcoin might break through the current high point of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.

For Ethereum, analysis points out that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to initiate a stronger rebound. Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the United States directed the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting the emergence of the "home-buying narrative" on-chain, and the market value of related tokens had significantly risen before falling back.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432 (Year-to-date +14.64%), Daily trading volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40 (Year-to-date -26.91%), Daily Trading Volume $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• 24-hour liquidation data: 89,720 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount of 201 million USD.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (net inflow for 13 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts.
• A certain platform will launch Moonveil(MORE)
• Pipe Network will launch the PIPE token sale.
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens

Hot News

• A certain asset management company updated the Q3 Top 20 asset list.
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid and began purchasing HYPE
• A certain whale deposited 1613 Bitcoins into the trading platform.
• Huaxing Capital announced a $100 million entry into the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sector.
• GameStop has raised $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC.
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.